Bowling Green vs. Kent State Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 11

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06 November 2023

Bowling Green vs. Kent State Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 11

The Kent State Golden Flashes play host to the Bowling Green Falcons as part of a MAC tripleheader on Wednesday, as we make our best Bowling Green vs. Kent State prediction based on the best college football odds.

The Bowling Green Falcons have won three consecutive games to get within one game of bowl eligibility. They are a run-first team with over 200 yards on the ground in two of their last three outings.

The Kent State Golden Flashes suffered a devastating setback in Week 10 while squandering a 17-point fourth-quarter lead and falling to the Akron Zips with a final score of 31-27. With this loss, Kent State's season record drops to 1-8, and they continue to struggle after failing to secure a victory against any FBS opponent this year, underscoring their challenges in facing competitive teams within their division.

Here is our best Bowling Green vs. Kent State prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Bowling Green vs. Kent State prediction: Week 11

Bowling Green -7.5 (-108 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

The Falcons may not play the prettiest football, but they’re very effective in executing their game plan. Their defense has allowed 21 or fewer points in three consecutive games, and they haven’t allowed 30 since September 23rd. The reason this is important is because last week was the first time the Golden Flashes scored more than 20 points against an FBS team all season.

The Golden Flashes allow 159.6 rushing yards per game, which plays right into the hands of the Falcons’ offense. Falcons’ running back Terion Stewart has four 100-yard games this season, and he went for 92 yards on just 15 carries last week.

To make life even more complicated for the Golden Flashes, the Falcons are tied for 20th in the nation in turnover margin per game. They’re averaging +0.6 on the season, and in their last three games, their average turnover margin is +2.7. The Golden Flashes have a negative turnover margin this season, and if they lose the turnover battle on Wednesday, they don’t have the offensive talent to make up for it.

But even if both teams play very clean football, the Falcons are still better than the Golden Flashes by more than a touchdown. With a bowl berth on the line, they won’t look ahead to next week’s showdown with the Toledo Rockets. Against an offense that can’t score, it won’t matter if they did anyway.

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Bowling Green vs. Kent State best odds

DraftKings and BetMGM each have the spread listed at 7.5, but with DraftKings offering the best line and price of our best sports betting apps, it's the obvious place to wager.

There is a lot of discrepancy between the best sports betting sites about where this number should be. With FanDuel, Caesars, and bet365 all listing this spread at -8 or higher, we’d expect to see DraftKings and BetMGM follow suit by kickoff on Wednesday. Do not wait to get in on this if you support the Falcons.

Bowling Green vs. Kent State odds

The Falcons opened as 6.5-point favorites, and the spread now sits on the other side of the key number at each site with the best sportsbook promos. DraftKings and BetMGM have the spread listed at 7.5, while FanDuel is up at 8.5. Only 52% of wagers back the Falcons to cover, so we don’t expect much more movement throughout the week. Considering three of the five major sportsbooks have this number at eight or higher, we don’t expect the key number to come into play.

The total opened at 41.5 at our best sportsbooks, and that is where it remains. A slight majority of wagers back the Over at the moment, so we’d expect to see this number rise as the week progresses. If you’re on the Under, we’d wait to wager, as you may be able to get the number as high as 43.