Tom Segal and Keith Melrose answer your questions

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The ITV Racing Christmas Festival sees six days of live racing on the channel from December 26 to January 1. We invited readers to put questions on this wonderful period of racing to Tom Segal of Pricewise and betting editor Keith Melrose. Below they answer the best of them.

Straight to the point here, who wins the King George?
Allan Morton

Tom: I don't think there are going to be more than a handful of runners, Allan. I have to admit to not having the slightest inclination to back Bravemansgame or Hitman at the prices and wonder if good old Frodon might win again.

Keith: It looked like a slightly below-average renewal before it came out that L'Homme Presse was an intended runner. He's the best horse if he turns up, but if he doesn't it's an open King George and Envoi Allen can win one of those. He was more superior than the result at Down Royal where he all but proved his stamina, and has the speed to lay up at Kempton however fast they go.

As a Welshman, it goes without saying my favourite race at this time of year is the Coral Welsh National. As nothing really came out of the Welsh National Trial, is The Big Dog the bet?
John Jenkins

Tom: He must have a big chance, although I think Venetia will have something to say about that. If Royale Pagaille runs he would be a strong fancy and Quick Wave looked exciting in the London National.

Keith: The Big Dog will have to be on the shortlist. I'd rather back Pats Fancy, though. He has been pegged for the 2023 Welsh National for as long as Bravemansgame has been aimed at this year's King George and he has done nothing to put me off. He's definitely a smart marathon chaser in the making.

Will we see the winner of the Cheltenham Gold Cup run in the King George?
George Thomas

Tom: If L'Homme Presse runs at Kempton it's very possible, but none of the others has a prayer at Cheltenham.

Keith: Betting without L'Homme Presse, I'd be dead surprised. The sexiest horses besides him, Bravemansgame, Hitman and Envoi Allen, do not appeal as Gold Cup types even if they show that sort of level in the King George.

Do you think Appreciate It will be as good a chaser as he was a hurdler? And would you aim him at the Arkle or the Turners?
Joe Loach

Tom: Given his pedigree and background, he should be a better chaser and I would always aim a novice at the Arkle rather than one of those new races, but then I'm old.

Keith: His size absolutely suggests he'll be a better chaser. Weirdly, that also puts me off a bit. He's clearly had issues to have run just once since the 2021 Supreme and bigger horses often find it harder to recapture their form after long breaks. Either way, though: Arkle. I'll defend the Ryanair to the death, but you can keep the Turners.

Is it a myth that Kempton is a speed track? Like Aintree's Mildmay course, I think it's sometimes left for a stayer to pick up the pieces when the front-runners have run themselves into the ground.
Christopher Partington

Tom: I don't know about that, Christopher. I've always felt that three miles at Kempton suits front-runners not because it's necessarily a speed track but because the fences are spaced out so evenly that it's hard to make up ground before another jump is upon you. So many front-runners have won the King George in the past when the ground is decent. On slow ground that obviously all changes, as we saw last year.

Keith: Yes and no, Christopher. It's no myth, but everyone knows it's a speed track and treats it as such which is why sometimes we get the sort of races you describe. It's the flip side of why no-one goes for home at Cheltenham at the top of the hill, because they know they have the final climb to come.

Bravemansgame appears to be a very short price for the King George for what is always an ultra-competitive race. Do you have an each-way fancy at a more attractive price?
Bruce Waind

Tom: Hi Batman! I like Frodon each-way for sure. He has run to a Racing Post Rating of 170 or more six times in his life – Bravemansgame and Hitman haven't achieved that figure once between them. That's not to say they can't and they probably will, but it's not like they are big prices.

Keith: I'm sure poor Bruce has never heard that one before, Tom. But I definitely agree that the each-way bet in the race is Frodon. He'll get the right ride and is evidently effective at the track. The only thing is that, barring something dramatic, you are probably flushing away the win portion.

Jonbon has looked like the only top novice chaser in Britain or am I missing something? Is there a diamond in the rough
who you have spotted?
Graham Wilshaw

Tom: The cupboard does look pretty bare, although I wouldn't be sleeping on Ballygrifincottage, who looked pretty good at Haydock on his chase debut.

Keith: You might be right about the two-milers, although I hold out what is probably a biased, northern-centric hope for Bass Rock becoming a Grade 1-class novice. I also agree with Tom on Ballygrifincottage. He is my vote for the horse Dan Skelton turns from a decent hurdler into a classy chaser this season.

Can you give us an ante-post Christmas treble. Please!
Ron Harris

Tom: Panda Boy in the Paddy Power Chase, Royale Pagaille in the Welsh National and Frodon in the King George. See you in the Bahamas!

Keith: I so rarely try to build multiples around shorties that I almost put up Argentina in the World Cup final. Flooring Porter, State Man and Constitution Hill. I can't promise the Bahamas, but you'll get more than your bus fare home.

What's your best bet for Christmas?
John Dexter

Tom: Royale Pagaille if he runs in the Welsh National.

Keith: A bit of guesswork required, but I reckon the price Ballygrifincottage will be available at relative to whatever Paul Nicholls runs in the Kauto Star, most likely McFabulous, could be the one.

I think Venetia Williams, Milton Harris and Henry de Bromhead will be well worth following from now to the end of the season. Do you agree?
Graham Barrett

Tom: I don't know a time when I wouldn't want to be following horses trained by those three.

Keith: I agree with Tom on this, with the tiniest caveat that Harris is better at turning Flat types into hurdlers than anything else, so as someone who bets mostly in chases I'm not so red-hot on him.

Where is the value in the Welsh National?
John Chamberlain

Tom: If Royale Pagaille runs I think he's a class above the rest.

Keith: I have a bit of a hunch about Truckers Lodge. He is 9lb lower than when third in the race last year and his reappearance run had the look of one that would tighten him up for another shot at this race. It will be interesting to see if Freddie Gingell gets to keep the ride. He is a talented 7lb claimer most of all, but it would be significant if Truckers Lodge has been earmarked as 'his' ride in this race given it is run in memory of his mother Kim.

Could you give us a couple of horses to back at big prices this Christmas?
Nathan Briggs

Tom: Hopefully those advised in my treble are big enough for you, Nathan! Panda Boy and Royale Pagaille are the two I like most.

Keith: As mentioned above, Truckers Lodge at 33-1 for the Welsh National makes some appeal. Among the early closers, the next best I can see is Coeur Sublime in the big 2m chase at Leopardstown. I assume Willie Mullins will have earmarked this race for Chacun Pour Soi, which thins out the opposition. Coeur Sublime was not far off Champion Hurdle standard and has looked a lot more grown up in recent starts over fences.

Are there any stables you historically like to follow around this time of year?
Kris Wilcox

Tom: No Kris. Take every race and every horse on their merits.

Keith: While Tom's advice is sound, I think there are a few specific considerations around Christmas. Firstly, Paul Nicholls tends to have his horses bang there around now before he gives them their flu jabs next month. Dan Skelton seems to love landing a touch around Christmas, the Rowland Meyrick in particular in which he always seems to train the favourite, so watch out for his entries. Something else I've noticed in recent seasons is that David Pipe has developed a habit of sending a fancied one to the Lincolnshire National at Market Rasen on Boxing Day.

Does Envoi Allen have what it takes to beat Bravemansgame?
George Mingay

Tom: A firm no!

Keith: A disagreement – hurrah! It might be Stockholm syndrome as I spend ages poring over an ordinary-looking King George, but as I said at the top, I increasingly think he does. It feels strange saying this because I've said before that his form has never kept up with his reputation, but I think it could be better than Bravemansgame's.

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