Tottenham vs Aston Villa Prediction

We look ahead to Sunday’s early kick-off in the Premier League with our Tottenham vs Aston Villa prediction and preview. Can Ange Postecoglou’s men get back to winning ways?

• The Opta supercomputer has as Tottenham favourites ahead of Sunday’s clash with fellow top-four contenders Aston Villa, giving the hosts a 48.1% chance of victory.
• Spurs have lost their last two Premier League games after opening the scoring in both. Only four teams have ever lost three successive matches in the competition when scoring first: Blackburn Rovers in 2007, Sunderland in 2011, Wolves in 2012 and Leicester City in 2014.
• Son Heung-min has scored five goals in six Premier League appearances against Aston Villa, though all of those goals have come at Villa Park.

Tottenham endured a nightmare few days prior to the international break, suffering their first pair of Premier League defeats under Ange Postecoglou and losing several key players to injury or suspension. Postecoglou now needs to pick his depleted side up ahead of Sunday’s meeting with a potential rival for a top-four finish, as in-form Aston Villa visit north London.

Having gone unbeaten through their first 10 Premier League games under Postecoglou, Spurs begin matchday 13 fourth in the table after suffering back-to-back losses against Chelsea (4-1) and Wolves (2-1), despite opening the scoring in both of those matches. Only four teams have ever lost three consecutive Premier League games when scoring first in each: Blackburn Rovers in April 2007, Sunderland in February 2011, Wolves in April 2012 and Leicester City in December 2014.

Spurs’ defeat at Molineux on matchday 12 was a particularly tough one to take, with Postecoglou’s men leading for 87 minutes through Brennan Johnson’s third-minute strike, only for stoppage-time goals from Pablo Sarabia and Mario Lemina to hand Wolves an astonishing victory. That is the longest unbroken lead a team has ever had in a Premier League game they eventually lost.

The last four goals Tottenham have shipped have all come in second-half stoppage time, and their total of six conceded during that timeframe is the most in the Premier League this season. They will be determined to avoid another ‘Spursy’ finish on Sunday, but Postecoglou has plenty of availability headaches ahead of the game.

While James Maddison and Micky van de Ven are long-term absentees, Richarlison will miss out after undergoing groin surgery and Cristian Romero is one game into his three-match ban. Yves Bissouma is also suspended after accumulating five yellow cards, while goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario was ill last week. Spurs are hopeful he, as well as fellow Italian Destiny Udogie, who is carrying a knock, will be available.

Given all their selection issues, Tottenham may be more reliant than usual on captain Son Heung-min, who has scored five goals in six Premier League appearances against Villa. All of those strikes have come at Villa Park, however, with only Michael Owen scoring more Premier League goals against a specific opponent without netting at home (six versus West Bromwich Albion).

Fellow forward Dejan Kulusevski will also have a key role to play, having created more chances following a ball carry (12) than any other player in the Premier League this season. The Swede has also carried the ball further than any other non-defender in the competition (2,735 metres).

Opponents Villa enter matchday 13 just one point behind Tottenham in the Premier League table, having boosted their surprise bid for UEFA Champions League qualification with a 3-1 win over Fulham last time out. John McGinn and Ollie Watkins netted after Fulham’s Antonee Robinson put through his own net as Villa stretched their home winning run to 13 league games.  

Only Manchester City (32) have bettered Villa’s 29 goals across the first 12 matchdays, with Unai Emery’s dynamic frontline proving a real handful for defences. Villa are averaging 14.9 shots per game in the Premier League this season, their highest figure in a single campaign since 2002-03 (16.2). Meanwhile, only Newcastle United (17.2%) have a better shot conversion rate than their 16.2%.

The movement of Watkins and Moussa Diaby could cause problems for Tottenham’s makeshift backline, with the former making the most off-ball runs in the Premier League this season (405). His 138 off-ball runs into the box is also a league-high tally, and he has received three successful through balls from McGinn. Only Maddison (four for Richarlison) has provided more for a single teammate this term.

Villa are hopeful McGinn will be fit to feature in their lineup after hobbling out of Scotland’s 3-3 draw with Norway on Sunday, while Diego Carlos and Jacob Ramsey could return after being sidelined prior to the international break. Emiliano Buendía and Tyrone Mings are long-term absentees with serious knee injuries.

Aston Villa did the Premier League double over Tottenham last season, with both of those victories coming after Emery took charge. Buendía and Douglas Luiz were on target when they won this exact fixture 2-0 on New Year’s Day this year.

Villa then secured a 2-1 win in the return fixture at Villa Park when the sides last met in May, which proved to be a decisive result as they beat Spurs to UEFA Europa Conference League qualification.

They had only won two of their previous 21 league meetings with Spurs before last season (three draws, 16 defeats), while they last won more consecutive games against them between November 1994 and January 1996 (four).

Villa also have a decent record at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, winning on two of their last three league trips there (also losing 2-1 in October 2021). Spurs have not lost consecutive home matches against the Villans since August 1995.

Tottenham’s chaotic 4-1 defeat to Chelsea on matchday 11 represents the only time they have failed to pick up three points in a home Premier League game under Postecoglou, whose reign began with victories over Manchester United, Sheffield United, Liverpool and Fulham at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

Postecoglou has lost successive games as a manager for the first time since doing so with Celtic in September 2021, with one of those defeats coming in the UEFA Europa League and the other in the Scottish Premiership.

Spurs’ back-to-back losses were the club’s first since May, when they were beaten by Villa and Brentford in the Premier League. On that occasion, they won their next game 4-1, against Leeds United on the final day of last season.

Villa, meanwhile, approach Sunday’s game in outstanding form, winning six of their last eight Premier League games, the exceptions being a 1-1 draw with Wolves and a 2-0 defeat at Nottingham Forest.

In fact, since the end of 2023-24’s first international break on 16 September, Villa have won more games (six) and earned more points (19) than any other team in the Premier League.

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

Despite Tottenham’s recent loss of form and mounting selection issues, they are considered favourites for Sunday’s game.

Across 10,000 match simulations conducted by the Opta supercomputer, Spurs were victorious in 48.1% of scenarios, with Villa winning 25.1% and 26.8% finishing all square.

In our overall season predictions, Tottenham and Villa are viewed as rivals for a top-four finish, and the supercomputer expects them to be in close contention with one another.

Tottenham secure a top-four spot in 39.4% of simulations, with Villa doing so in 36%. While fourth is Spurs’ most common position, finishing there 24.7% of the time, Villa end the season fifth in 22.1% of our simulations.

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