Tour de France Betting Odds

Jonas Vingegaard or Tadej Pogačar? At the start of the 2023 Tour de France, most experts and fans alike agreed that—barring a significant crash or injury—that either Vingegaard or Pogačar would capture the win in the General Classification at the Tour.

As this year’s Tour prepares to start its final week, very little continues to separate these two champions. It’s been a historically close TdF so far. Of course, only one will wear the maillot jaune in Paris. So who is favored by those experts in Vegas? Sports betting odds often provide good insight into which riders have the edge. After all, these services stand to lose a lot of money if they get this kind of thing wrong.

Here are the 2023 Tour de France odds for the General Classification (as of Monday, July 17 at 5 p.m. EDT) from three different gambling services.

DraftKings

• Jonas Vingegaard -120
• Tadej Pogačar +100

FanDuel

• Jonas Vingegaard -125
• Tadej Pogačar +100

BetMGM

• Jonas Vingegaard -120
• Tadej Pogačar +100

These figures tell us that Vegas gives the edge to the defending Tour champion Vingegaard. But it’s only a very slight advantage. -120 translates to an implied probability of 54.5 percent and -125 translates to an implied probability of 55.6 percent. +100, Pogačar’s odds, translates to an implied probability of 50 percent.

More or less, this competition is a toss up. If you’ve been following the Tour de France this year, these numbers shouldn’t be too surprising.

Vingegaard gained fairly significant time on Pogačar during Stage 5, putting his early advantage at 53 seconds. But Pogačar has little by little been chipping away at Vingegaard’s lead in the yellow jersey competition. Pogačar has gone on the offensive numerous times in the last week plus, and on a few occasions, Vingegaard hasn’t been able to match his accelerations.

Vingegaard now leads Pogačar by just 10 seconds—a number that can shrink or increase over the last six stages between an individual time trial to open the final week on Tuesday and two tough mountain stages.

With the exception of his slip up on Stage 5, Pogačar has appeared to have a bit of a one-up on Vingegaard over the ensuing 10 stages. Yet the betting markets seem to still favor Vingegaard, albeit very slightly.

Bicycling isn’t going to give you gambling advice, nor do we condone gambling. These odds merely give us a look at how those who stand to make a lot of money see this head-to-head battle playing out.

As far as we’re concerned, we’re excited to sit back, relax, and enjoy what should be a thrilling last week of the men’s Tour de France.

Dan is a writer and editor living in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and before coming to Runner’s World and Bicycling was an editor at MileSplit. He competed in cross country and track and field collegiately at DeSales University.