Toyota Owners 400 Predictions: NASCAR At Richmond Odds, Picks & Best Bets

With top-10 finishes in three of his last five starts, Kevin Harvick certainly doesn’t look like a driver closing in on retirement. 

After struggling most of last season to get up to speed on the next-gen car, the former series champion suddenly appears very capable of recording at least one more victory before he hangs up his helmet and joins the FOX TV broadcast team in 2024.

No better place to start, perhaps, than Sunday at Richmond Raceway, where Harvick won the night race last fall and has finished seventh or better in seven his last eight starts. 

More promising: Harvick clearly took to the “low downforce” package that NASCAR began utilizing this season for oval tracks of 1 mile or less—designed to give drivers more control, and theoretically produce better racing—by leading 36 laps and finishing fifth three weeks ago at Phoenix, where the package made its debut.

Harvick at +550 is the No. 2 choice at DraftKings this week at Richmond behind favorite William Byron (+450), who led 122 laps and placed third at Richmond last spring. 

Byron, who won back-to-back races at Las Vegas and Phoenix, rebounded from a crash at Atlanta to finish fifth last weekend at the road course in Austin, Texas. The Hendrick driver owns one career short-track victory, which came on the flat track in Martinsville, Va., last spring.

Toyota Owners 400 Odds

Toyota Owners 400 Betting Tips

Byron is a somewhat interesting favorite on , given that his third-place run at Richmond last year stands as his only top-five finish at the .75-mile track in nine career starts. 

The active career leader in wins at Richmond with six is Kyle Busch, who’s placed in the top 10 in 12 of his past 14 starts in the Virginia capital, but hasn’t won there since 2018. But Busch remains the NASCAR championship favorite at +700, after a runner-up finish in Austin that marked his third straight top-10.

Tied with four career Richmond wins apiece are Harvick and Denny Hamlin, the latter of whom is the defending champion of this race, and has placed in the top five in 10 of his last 12 starts on his hometown track. 

But Hamlin has been his typically inconsistent self this season, so far without back-to-back top-10 finishes, and he posted a 23rd-place run at Phoenix in the low-downforce package debut. Three-time Richmond winner Martin Truex Jr. has been seventh or better in eight straight there, although he has only one finish in the single-digits (seventh at Las Vegas) so far this season.

Two-time Richmond winner Joey Logano has been sixth or better in four of his last five at Richmond, though he hasn’t prevailed there since 2014. For sports bettors hunting value, there are alternatives like two-time Richmond winner Brad Keselowski, who’s led laps in all but one race this season, and is finally showing signs of life in the car he co-owns with Jack Roush. And don’t overlook BK’s teammate Chris Buescher, who finished third at Richmond last fall. 

Toyota Owners 400 Best Bets To Back

Christopher Bell to Win

Odds:

Who owns the best career average finish at Richmond among current NASCAR drivers? That would be Bell, whose 6.0 average includes finishes of second, sixth, third and fourth over his last four starts in the Virginia capital. 

As for this season, Bell has finished sixth or better in every race where he hasn’t been involved in a crash. While we’d like to see him lead a few more laps, Bell’s car is clearly tuned in, and his career stats identify Richmond as an ideal spot for a first win of 2023. 

Kevin Harvick Top 3

Odds:

Simply the best driver of his era at Richmond, Harvick’s 17,101 laps led in the Virginia capital are nearly 3,500 more than anyone else in the field, and he’s placed in the top 10 in a staggering 67% of his career starts there. 

Even when he struggled to adjust to the next-gen car, he didn’t struggle at Richmond. Harvick has been first and second over his last two starts at Richmond, and even if he doesn’t win again Sunday, he should factor into the final result.

Kyle Busch Top 5

Odds:

Want another impressive Richmond stat? How about this: Busch has finished in the top 10 in an incredible 79% of his career starts at the .75-mile layout. He hasn’t suffered back-to-back finishes outside of the top 10 at Richmond since 2013, though he’s toed that line lately with three straight ninth-place results. 

Even so, we’ll take Busch’s fantastic track record at Richmond, particularly in light of the very strong start he’s enjoyed to this season in his new ride with RCR.