Toyota/Save Mart 350 Predictions, Odds & Picks
This week, the NASCAR Cup Series takes a break from going round and round and heads to Wine Country for Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway in Sonoma, California (3:30 pm ET, FOX).
Last week, Kyle Busch became only the second driver this season to wine from the pole as he took the win at the Enjoy Illinois 300.
Busch owns two wins at Sonoma and will be one of the top contenders this week, but will he join William Byron as the only drivers this season to record consecutive wins? Read on for our Toyota/Save Mart 350 picks and predictions.
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Before we make our Toyota/Save Mart 350 picks, let’s take a look at race odds, with qualifying set to take place tomorrow evening.
Odds to Win the 2023 Toyota/Save Mart 350
- Kyle Larson +450
- Tyler Reddick +500
- Chase Elliott +550
- Kyle Busch +900
- Ross Chastain +900
- William Byron +1100
- Daniel Suarez +1200
- A.J. Allmendinger +1600
- Austin Cindric +1600
- Chris Buescher +2000
- Christopher Bell +2000
- Joey Logano +2000
- Martin Truex Jr. +2200
- Alex Bowman +2500
- Ryan Blaney +2500
- Kevin Harvick +2800
- Michael McDowell +3300
- Chase Briscoe +4000
- Denny Hamlin +4000
- Brad Keselowski +5000
- Ty Gibbs +5000
- Erik Jones +12500
- Bubba Wallace +15000
- Justin Haley +15000
- Rick Stenhouse Jr. +15000
- Ryan Preece +15000
- Austin Dillon +25000
- Zane Smith +25000
- Aric Almirola +40000
- Corey LaJoie +50000
- Grant Enfinger +50000
- Harrison Burton +50000
- Todd Gilliland +50000
- Andy Lally +100000
- Josh Bilicki +100000
- Ty Dillon +100000
Toyota/Save Mart 350 Predictions and Picks
This is the second of six road races on this year’s NASCAR Cup Series schedule, with the Chicago street course debut up next on July 2.
The first one this season, March’s EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix at Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas, was won by Tyler Reddick.
Reddick is one of five drivers in this week’s field with three or more career road course wins, and my Toyota/Save Mart 350 picks focus squarely on that quintet.
Active NASCAR Cup Series Road Course Win Leaders
- Chase Elliott: seven wins (third all-time)
- Kyle Busch: four wins
- Kyle Larson: four wins
- Martin Truex Jr.: four wins
- Tyler Reddick: three wins
Of that group, Truex (2013, 2018, and 2019), Busch (2008 and 2015), and Larson (2021) own wins at Sonoma. Elliott’s highest Toyota/Save Mart 350 finish is a runner-up finish to Hendrick Motorsports teammate Larson in 2021, while Reddick’s best finish of his two previous Sonoma starts is a 19th-place finish in 2021.
Elliott will be making his return to the track after being suspended for last week’s race due to intentionally wrecking Denny Hamlin in the Coca-Cola 600.
The 2020 NASCAR Cup Series champion, who also missed five races earlier this season, is still in search of his first 2023 win. But prior to his 34th-place finish in Charlotte, he had finished 12th or better in his previous six races since finishing 38th at the Daytona 500.
I’m gravitating towards Elliott for my top pick this week, though it does come with a caveat.
As noted, he is tops among current NASCAR Cup Series drivers in road course wins, and he needs just two more to tie road course king Jeff Gordon at the top. And given that this is one course Elliott hasn’t conquered yet, he would no doubt love to return from his suspension by checking Sonoma off of his list.
However, the one caveat is that Elliott has not been a particularly strong qualifier this season. In the eight races he has taken part in, he has qualified inside the top 20 only three times.
Why is that notable? No one from outside the top 15 has won the Toyota/Save Mart 350 since 2008, when Kyle Busch started 30th and beat out David Gilliland–who started 31st–for the win.
However, Elliott has traditionally been a strong qualifier at Sonoma. Since starting 16th in his first race there in 2016, he has qualified eighth, third, fourth, second, and second.
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