2023 Toyota Save Mart 350 odds, picks and predictions

The NASCAR Cup Series returns to Sonoma Raceway Sunday for the 2023 Toyota Save Mart 350. Green flag is scheduled to drop shortly after 3:30 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook lines around the 2023 Toyota Save Mart 350 odds, and make our expert NASCAR picks and predictions.

2023 Toyota Save Mart 350: What you need to know

• Stewart-Haas Racing’s Daniel Suarez picked up his first NASCAR Cup Series win last season in the Toyota Save Mart 350 at Sonoma
• Joe Gibbs Racing driver Denny Hamlin is on the pole after posting a best speed of 92.178 mph, just edging out 23XI Racing’s Tyler Reddick (92.068 mph)
• Hendrick Motorsports drive Kyle Larson won the 2021 race, and the California native has 94 laps led and a 15.1 Average-Finish Position (AFP) in 8 Cup starts at the track. He was sharp in practice, posting a best speed of 91.73 mph to top the charts
• Team Penske driver Austin Cindric made his Cup debut at Sonoma last season, and he posted a 5th-place finish after starting 25th
• SHR’s Kevin Harvick will make what is expected to be his final Sonoma start. He has a win, 7 top-5 finishes and 11 top-10 runs with 95 laps led in 21 Cup starts with a 12.8 AFP
• Joe Gibbs Racing driver Martin Truex Jr. leads all active drivers with 3 wins at Sears Point, while posting 5 top-5 finishes, 213 laps led and a 17.7 AFP with 3 DNFs. He was 2nd in practice with a 91.079 mph
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is the only other active driver besides MTJ with multiple DNFs, but he doesn’t have nearly the same good results. Stenhouse has a 27.0 AFP, and 18th is his best finish at the track
• Christopher Bell (25.5 AFP – 2 Cup starts), Michael McDowell (23.9 AFP – 10 starts – 1 DNF), Ryan Preece (25.0 AFP – 2 starts), Tyler Reddick (27.0 AFP – 2 starts) and Bubba Wallace (26.8 AFP – 4 starts – 1 DNF) have all struggled early in their Cup careers at Sonoma
• AJ Allmendinger, normally a road course specialist, has struggled at Sonoma in 11 career Cup starts. While he has led 65 laps, he had just 2 top-10 finishes and 1 DNF with a subpar 23.5 AFP. He is the top Chevy in the starting grid, going off 5th

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2023 Toyota Save Mart 350 – Expert picks

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:05 a.m. ET.

KYLE LARSON (+350) is the chalk and he is a strong play for Sunday’s race. He has enjoyed recent success at the track since the 2020 installment was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic. While he was just 15th last season, he had a strong practice and qualifying session leading up to the race. And he won the 2021 race after the hiatus.

He was also strong in practice Saturday, leading all drivers with a 91.73 mph mark, well ahead of 2nd place and Truex at 91.079 mph.

2023 Toyota Save Mart 350 – Long shot

Take a chance on 2 long-shot drivers for a chance to win.

CHASE BRISCOE (+6600) is worth a small-unit play. He has finished 13th and 17th in his 2 Cup starts at Sonoma, improving each time. In addition to a small-unit play, a CHASE BRISCOE TOP-10 FINISH (+2200 ) is a value pick at plus-money.

In addition to taking a flier on Briscoe, look at CHRIS BUESCHER (+1700), too. He was 14th in practice with a 90.379 mph best speed, and he was 7th in qualifying Saturday, managing a best speed of 91.811 mph, just ahead of Sonoma extraordinaire Truex. Like Briscoe above, a CHRIS BUESCHER TOP-10 FINISH (+500 ) is also an attractive pick.

2023 Toyota Save Mart 350 prop pick(s)

TOYOTA (+145) – Top Manufacturer

I know Toyota is hopeful that one of their cars will win in the Toyota Save Mart 350, that’s for sure.

Hamlin is on the pole, Reddick managed a 2nd-place showing with a best speed of 92.068 mph, and Ty Gibbs was also dominant in practice and qualifying. In fact, he’ll go off 6th on Sunday. Bell was also 4th, with Truex lurking in the 8th starting spot. That’s 4 Toyotas in the Top 8 starting spots ahead of a bevy of Chevys.

While I like Larson (Chevy) to win, and Briscoe (Ford) and Buescher (Ford) as long-shot picks, playing Toyota seems a little silly. But as a backup play, or if you just want to cheer for a car type, not a particular driver, or you just want to hedge a little, Toyota has many other options in favorable starting positions to rise up and spoil the day for Chevy and Ford.