Twins Sitting Pretty in Early 2024 Betting Lines

These lines are drawn from FanDuel Sportsbook, as of Jan. 15.

1. O/U Win Total: 86.5 wins
The Twins finished with 87 victories last year, in a historically bad division. The early total has them hovering around that number again in 2024. In the context of the American League and the Central in particular, though, the Twins are in a pleasant spot. Always a popular bet, the Yankees have their usual bloated total of 93.5, meant to pull in money on both sides of the number. Houston (92.5) and Texas (89.5) rule the west, while Baltimore (87.5) and Toronto (86.5) jockey with New York in the east. Tampa Bay (84.5) lurks as a constant threat. 

These lines are extremely tepid… and then there’s the vaunted central. Detroit (78.5) and Cleveland (77.5) are, by the odds, expected to finish below .500. Due in no small part to the ineptitude of much of this division, the AL flat-out lacks the juggernauts we see in the National League. Both the Dodgers (104.5) and Atlanta (100.5) open extremely high, while Philadelphia (90.5) looks to build on back-to-back final four appearances. There is no total higher than 93.5 in the AL. Barring a frenzy of activity for a certain team or two, the AL side of the bracket should be wide-open again in 2024.

2. Twins to win the American League: +850 (T-4th)
This free range nature of the league is evidenced in the odds. The Yankees, who missed the playoffs last year, are the favorites (+410), followed by the Astros (+430), and defending champion Rangers (+480). The upstart Orioles and Twins are tied for the fourth-best marks (+850). The difference between the Yankees and Twins is just +440, while the difference between the favored Dodgers (+180) and fourth-place Cardinals (+1500) in the NL is +1320. That is a monster discrepancy showing the contrast in leagues, but also that the Dodgers are sure to pull bettors’ money after signing Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. 

There’s only one way to win the pennant and/or the World Series: make the playoffs! This is partly why the Twins have optimistic odds to represent the AL in the Fall Classic. They have the best chance to win their division (-130), compared to the Yankees (+130) and Astros (+130), and have the biggest gap in win total between the first- and second-place teams in the division (eight). Playing in the AL Central is a great luxury and there's zero notion, by the odds or otherwise, that the competition will be much better this season. 

3. Pablo López to win the American League Cy Young Award: +1100 (4th)
Pablo López carried a 4.24 ERA into mid-July in his first season with the Twins, adding fuel to the fire of fans who remained irate that Luis Arraez was hitting .400 for the Marlins. As usual, the numbers under the hood won the day. López’s ERA was almost a full run higher than his FIP (3.33) through his first 19 starts for Minnesota. From Jul. 20 on, he posted the exact same FIP, but his ERA fell to 2.79 over his final 13 starts of the regular season. The beauty of numbers!

He made his first All-Star Game, stayed healthy for 194 innings, finished second in the AL in strikeouts (234), and lowered his career Postseason ERA to 1.53 with one good start against Toronto and a dazzling one wherein he struck out seven over seven scoreless innings in a must-win Game 2 of the ALDS in Houston. López will still only be 28 years old when Opening Day arrives. Only Gerrit Cole (+500), Kevin Gausman (+650), and Framber Valdez (+750) have better odds to take home the AL Cy Young Award in 2024. 

— Latest Twins coverage from our writers
— Recent Twins discussion in our forums
— Follow Twins Daily via , or
— Become a Twins Daily Caretaker