Twins vs. Diamondbacks Prediction: MLB Betting Lines & Picks

Ryan Jeffers rides a 10-game hitting streak into the Minnesota Twins’ (56-54) game versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (57-53) at 8:10 PM ET on Friday, at Target Field.

The Twins are favored at home (-129) against the Diamondbacks (+111). The contest has a set total of 8.5.

The insights in what follows are based off odds valid as of August 4, 2023 at 1:12 PM ET. Ready to bet?

Twins vs Diamondbacks Betting Lines

Twins Betting Insights

• The Twins have won 43, or 59.7%, of the 72 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
• This season Minnesota has won 34 of its 57 games, or 59.6%, when favored by at least -129 on the moneyline.
• The bookmakers’ moneyline implies a 56.3% chance of a victory for the Twins.
• Minnesota and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 51 of 110 opportunities.
• The Twins have an ATS record of 50-60-0 in 110 games with a spread this season.

Twins Last 10 Games Trend

Diamondbacks Betting Insights

• The Diamondbacks have come away with 27 wins in the 59 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
• This year, Arizona has won 18 of 38 games when listed as at least +111 or worse on the moneyline.
• The Diamondbacks have an implied victory probability of 47.4% according to the moneyline set by oddsmakers for this matchup.
• Arizona and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 47 of its 110 opportunities.
• The Diamondbacks are 60-50-0 against the spread in their 110 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.

Diamondbacks Last 10 Games Trend

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Twins Probable Pitcher – Bailey Ober

• Ober’s team is 8-9-0 against the spread this season in his starts.
• The right-hander’s last start was on Saturday, when he tossed four innings while giving up six earned runs on 11 hits in a matchup with the Kansas City Royals.
• Ober has 16 starts of five or more innings this season in 17 chances. He averages 5.8 innings per outing.
• He has three appearances with no earned runs allowed in 17 chances this season.
• Ober’s team is 6-5 this season when he starts and they are the moneyline favorite.
• Ober’s team has won 10 of his 17 starts.
• In Ober’s 17 starts with a total, the teams have hit the over five times.

Twins Relief Pitchers

Diamondbacks Probable Pitcher – Merrill Kelly

• Kelly (9-5) is trying for his 10th win when he takes the mound first for the Diamondbacks in his 19th start of the season. He’s put together a 3.23 ERA in 106 2/3 innings pitched, with 109 strikeouts.
• His last appearance came on Sunday against the Seattle Mariners, when the righty threw five innings, surrendering three earned runs while allowing seven hits.
• Kelly will try to last five or more innings for his 18th straight appearance. He’s averaging 5.9 innings per outing.
• He has held his opponents without an earned run in one of his 18 outings this season.
• The Diamondbacks have been the moneyline underdog in eight of Kelly’s starts this season, and they went 4-4 in those games.
• Kelly’s team has won 11 of his 18 starts.
• Kelly has had 18 starts that bookmakers set a total for this season, and six of those games finished over the total.

Diamondbacks Relief Pitchers

Twins Hitting Trends

• The Twins have a 42-11 record this season in games when they belt two or more home runs.
• Minnesota has gone 30-6 in its 36 games this season with at least five extra-base hits.
• The team has totaled eight or more hits in 66 games this season, and is 49-17 in those contests.
• Minnesota has a 52-9 record in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
• The Twins are 23-12 in games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.

Diamondbacks Hitting Trends

• They are 25-12 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
• In 25 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 18-7.
• In 79 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 53-26.
• In 67 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 51-16.
• They have a 19-19 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.

Twins vs. Diamondbacks Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Twins (-129)
Over/Under Pick: Under (8.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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