Tyreek Hill NFL Player Props, Odds Week 9: Predictions for Dolphins vs. Chiefs
The Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs each look to improve to 7-2 as we make our best Tyreek Hill NFL player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds.
Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill is off to one of the most incredible starts in NFL history. He's on pace to be the first wide receiver in NFL history to accumulate over 2,000 receiving yards. Hill has already notched five 100-plus-yard games and eight touchdowns.
This week, he faces his old team for the first time. The Kansas City Chiefs are allowing just 176.1 passing yards per game.
NFL Week 9 predictions and NFL best bets, along with our Week 9 NFL props to accompany our best Tyreek Hill NFL player prop predictions for the Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs Week 9 matchup (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Tyreek Hill NFL player prop predictions for Week 9
Tyreek Hill player props
Tyreek Hill Over 90.5 receiving yards (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
The Chiefs have the second-best passing defense in the league, and they’ve allowed just two 100-yard receivers this season. However, they’ve faced some of the worst offenses in football over the first eight weeks. In three games against teams ranking in the top six in the NFL in passing yards, the Chiefs have allowed each quarterback to throw for more than 250 yards.
Even if the Kansas City defense has success against Hill early, there are three major reasons we like his Over prop this week. One is that he is essentially matchup-proof, two is his big-play ability, and three is motivation. Hill has just three games under 100 receiving yards this season. One of those was an 88-yard performance against the Philadelphia Eagles, and the other two came against division opponents who face him multiple times per season.
The Chiefs haven’t had to face a player like Hill yet. Plus, Hill has likely circled this game ever since the schedule came out. Finally, Hill has six receptions of 40 or more yards this season. Even if he ends the game with five receptions, he can crush this Over prop.
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Tyreek Hill 8+ receptions (+135 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
At every one of our major sportsbooks that are currently listing this receptions prop, Hill’s total is sitting at 6.5 receptions. However, the price for the Over is too expensive to bring much value, with the cheapest sportsbook offering at -145. Therefore, we’re going with an alternative line.
Hill has caught at least eight passes in five of his eight games this season. He has just two games with five or fewer receptions, and both of those games came against division rivals. There is always the chance that Hill takes receptions away from himself by rattling off explosive plays, but in a game like this, we should expect Miami head coach Mike McDaniel to have plenty of creative ways to get his star receiver involved.
If the Chiefs focus on keeping Hill in front of them, then we like this play even more. The Eagles didn’t allow any huge plays to Hill in their game, but he still ended up with 11 catches.
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Tyreek Hill longest reception Over 27.5 yards (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Hill has a reception of 28 or more yards in all but three of his games this season. All three games in which he didn’t clear this number also happened to be the games where he didn’t clear 100 yards.
The Chiefs are third-best in the league in yards allowed per play. However, we already discussed how their opponents helped elevate these numbers. They’re still allowing 9.1 yards per completion and will be in for a challenge against an offense averaging 12.4 yards per reception.
Hill has 380 yards after the catch this season, the most in the NFL by a lot. He can turn the smallest gains into something huge with ease, which makes taking the Under Prop market impossible. We do believe that this number should be higher, but because the Dolphins have struggled against good teams, they’re being undervalued here. We’d take this up to 30 yards.
Tyreek Hill player prop picks made 11/3/2023 at 12:02 p.m. ET.
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