UFC 272: Covington vs Masvidal Picks and Predictions

The main event at UFC 272 is set to be a great one, as Colby Covington comes up against Jorge Masvidal with both fighters looking to rebound from an L. It's "Chaos" Covington who is the heavy UFC betting favorite and our picks break down why that's right.

Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal is the main event for UFC 272 tonight, March 5, from T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada.

Although this fight has been hyped as a bitter rivalry between former friends, that narrative isn't necessary for what should be an intriguing bout between a pair of welterweights that recently fought for the championship. Covington was much more competitive in his title challenge, which is a big reason why UFC betting lines for this showdown have him favored at -333. 

Here are our best free UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal picks and predictions for tonight, March 5.

Covington vs Masvidal fight odds

Covington vs Masvidal method of victory odds

Covington vs Masvidal picks

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Covington vs Masvidal betting preview

Colby "Chaos" Covington is fresh off a decision loss to current champ Kamaru Usman at UFC 268 in November. Covington was picked apart in the first two rounds of that bout (even getting dropped twice in the second frame) but showed his resiliency by coming back and keeping things very close in the final three rounds.

The 34-year-old is now 8-2 in his last 10 UFC fights, with impressive victories versus Demian Maia, Rafael dos Anjos, Robbie Lawler, and Tyron Woodley. Both defeats during that span were in title challenges against Usman with Chaos losing by late fifth-round stoppage after suffering a broken jaw in December 2019.

A former NCAA All-American wrestler at Oregon State, Chaos averages 4.1 takedowns per 15 minutes and does a great job of controlling his opponents on the mat and against the cage. He's also a high-volume striker that loves to push the pace and has a seemingly limitless gas tank to back it up.

The last time we saw Jorge "Gamebred" Masvidal enter the octagon we saw him exit to the shadow realm when he was put to sleep by a right hook from Usman in the second round last April. That was a disappointing result for Masvidal who had previously lost by decision to Usman in his first title challenge in 2020 when he was smothered by the champ's superior wrestling ability.

Gamebred came into that first challenge after three consecutive knockout wins over Darren Till, Ben Askren, and Nate Diaz. The 36-year-old is 35-15 in his MMA career and has grown from a journeyman brawler to one of the most highly-respected fighters in the UFC.

Steet Jesus (or "Street Judas" as Covington calls him) is a well-rounded fighter that utilized wrestling earlier in his career but his bread-and-butter is his striking ability. He has some of the cleanest boxing in the division with quick hands along with dangerous knees and elbows in the clinch. 

Covington vs Masvidal tale of the tape

Covington vs Masvidal UFC prediction and best bet

Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.

Prediction: Covington (-333)

Masvidal certainly has a puncher's chance in this one with the power he has in his mitts. That said, Covington does an excellent job of closing space with his pressure and getting into underhook position where he can establish control.

Masvidal generally has good takedown defense but we saw in his loss to Maia and in that first bout against Usman that he can be controlled by high-end wrestlers. Covington is one of the best in that area and his title challenges against Usman only stayed standing up because both are equally adept at wrestling. Covington is typically relentless with his chain-wrestling and positioning and he'll likely revert back to that style to stifle Masvidal's offense and drain his energy.

This is a matchup nightmare for Gamebred, who will likely be on the backfoot from Covington's forward pressure and will have flashbacks to his frustrating decision loss to Usman when he couldn't flow with his striking and was dominated by scores of 50-45, 50-45, and 49-46.

Best bet: Covington by points (-110)

This is kind of strange matchup to handicap when you consider that Covington and Masvidal have fought a total of five times in the last 26 months and four of those came against the same guy in Usman. While Covington's wrestling-heavy style is similar in some ways to Usman he doesn't have the champ's strength and power.

Although his last win came by way of TKO against a washed-up Woodley in 2020, that stoppage happened in the fifth round and was the result of accumulated damage resulting in a broken rib. Covington's previous five wins all came by way of decision and now he's facing Masvidal who is notoriously tough to finish.

Sure, your last memory of Masvidal might be him getting starched by Usman but his previous 10 defeats (going all the way back to 2010) came by decision. Keep in mind that a big reason why Covington adopted his brash, trash-talking persona was due to his lack of popularity for fights that were perceived as boring. Expect a return to that grinding style at UFC 272 and back him to win by points.