UFC 296 betting tips and Edwards vs Covington predictions

Leon Edwards vs Colby Covington betting tips

British MMA star Leon Edwards defends his UFC welterweight title for the second time this weekend when he faces the controversial Colby Covington in the main event of UFC 296 (TNT Sports 1, from 1am). 

Edwards became just the second Brit to hold a UFC title when he defeated Kamaru Usman by a last-minute KO, landing a kick to the temple whilst being well behind on all the judges’ scorecards.

He returned to England earlier this year to defend the title against Usman, in a fight he won by majority decision.

Since he last stepped inside the Octagon, he’s been joined by another British title holder, in the shape of interim heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall, and he’ll be hoping that 2023 ends with them both carrying gold.

But for all Covington’s antics outside the ring, he’s a relentless and unyielding opponent, and betting sites are only giving a slight edge to the champion.

Here are our Edwards vs Covington predictions for their intriguing showdown in Las Vegas.

Edwards must deal with favourites tag

Edwards has shown he has what it takes to dig deep and perform as an underdog having entered his last bout with Usman as the outsider on betting apps.

It was the third time the pair had met, and the ‘Nigerian Nightmare’ had won seven of the previous eight rounds they’d competed in.

However, the British fighter was able to flip the narrative and won on points, extending his undefeated streak inside the Octagon to 12 fights. 

Now he must deal with a different kind of pressure having been priced up as the favourite for this title defence against Donald Trump’s favourite UFC fighter in Las Vegas.

He’s odds-on to defend his title, but Covington is hardly a huge outsider at a best price of 27/20. 

The American hasn’t been active since beating Jorge Masvidal 21 months ago but has kept hold of his number three ranking in the welterweight division.

The 35-year-old has won an interim version of the welterweight title previously but lost to Usman twice for the undisputed belt, while he’s also never beaten anyone currently in the division’s top 15.

However, he remains an extremely lively and dangerous opponent for Edwards, and has only lost once each by decision, submission or KO.

It’s unlikely that Edwards will be looking to tap his rival out, considering he hasn’t won by that method in over seven years, while Covington’s excellent fitness could see him keep Edwards under pressure.

But the Brit has what it takes to go deep into fights and come out on top and we’re backing his excellent technical ability to catch the judges’ eye and ultimately win him the bout.

Covington’s wrestling vs Edwards’ defence

Covington may have really made a name for himself thanks to his controversial takes and goading of his opponents, but it’s his wrestling and grappling that got him to where he is in UFC. 

The southpaw has beaten the likes of Rafael dos Anjos, Robbie Lawler, Tyron Woodley and Masvidal, all iconic names in the 155 lbs division. 

He would love nothing more than the chance to prove his doubters wrong and get on the microphone once Dana White has wrapped the belt around him.

Before stopping former champion Woodley early in the fifth round of their fight in 2020, Covington hadn’t ended a bout early since 2016.

The UFC odds certainly reflect that lack of KO ability with bet365 putting the challenger at 7/1 to win by stoppage, while he’s 11/1 to win by submission.

His route to victory in this bout is likely to be wrestling Edwards to the mat and dominating from the floor, squeezing the life out of the champion.

The challenger has excellent cardio fitness which should allow him to put the pressure on his opponent throughout the five rounds, especially if Edwards can’t find a finish early on.

However, Edwards is a very good all-round fighter with one of his main strengths being his takedown defence, as he showed in the second title fight with Usman.

It’s difficult to see where a breakthrough for either fighter might come that results in a stoppage and new betting sites go odds-on on the bout seeing the final bell. 

It’s worth considering that option as our final Edwards vs Covington prediction as it may provide a bit of insurance if Covington does pull off the upset.

Ryan is an experienced sports journalist and betting tipster, who has written for some of the biggest publications in the UK. He has covered a wide range of sports, particularly football, boxing, MMA and F1.