UFC 296: Edwards vs Covington odds and betting tips
Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington goes down on December 16 (December 17 in the UK) at UFC 296.
Ask MMA fans whether Edwards is going to retain his welterweight title and it’s almost an even yes/no split.
Indeed, according to an X poll conducted by former UFC gangster Chael Sonnen this week, 51% of people are backing Covington.
The UFC 296 betting odds aren’t quite as close. To see what the latest Edwards vs Covington odds are, as well as those for other title fights, including Alexandre Pantoja and Brandon Royval, let’s weigh-in with our UFC 296 betting picks.
The headline championship fight on the UFC 296 main card is Leon Edwards vs Colby Covington.
As it stands, the best UK bookmakers have Edwards as the favourite but the contender, Covington, is far from a huge underdog.
- Leon Edwards to win at 8/11 with Betfair (50/1 with special offer)
- Colby Covington to win at 7/5 with Betfair
Can Brazilian Alexandre Pantoja get the 27 victory of his MMA career and retain the UFC Flyweight Championship title or will Brandon Royval upset the odds?
The champ currently leads the latest UFC 296 betting market but, as it is with Edwards and Covington, the odds are extremely close.
- Alexandre Pantoja to win at 8/15 with bet365
- Brandon Royval to win at 13/8 with Sky Bet
One fight on UFC 296 that has fans and oddsmakers favouring one combatant highly over another is Tony Ferguson vs Paddy Pimblett. Ferguson has been a UFC warrior for more than a decade, but he’ll go into his December 17 main card bout against Pimblett as the sizable underdog.
- Paddy Pimblett to win at 5/2 with Betfair
Leon Edwards is the reigning UFC welterweight champion. He head-kicked the belt away from long-time champ Kamaru Usman back in August 2022 and went on to defend the title against Usman in March 2023. The two wins over Usman signalled Edwards’ evolution as a fighter.
He’d always been a top-level striker with solid takedown defence, but confidence issues and a certain lack of sparkle had stopped him from reaching the elite level.
All that changed during his title fight against Usman. Down on the judge’s scorecards going into the fifth round, Edwards’ coach delivered a rousing speech that would ultimately lead to his man finding the perfect shot.
That shot was the realisation of Edwards’ potential. He parlayed a newfound confidence into a second win over Usman who many consider one of the greatest welterweights in history. Those victories, combined with 19 other wins in his career, have made Leon “Rocky” Edwards a hard man to beat.
Love him or hate him, Colby Covington is a tough fighter. Coming from a collegiate wrestling background means he’s not only strong and durable, but fit. Indeed, as noted by friend and former fighter Chael Sonnen, Covington hasn’t put on any noticeable weight, despite being inactive since March 2022.
He is, despite the persona he portrays in the media, a consummate professional when it comes to training. This professionalism is combined with a dogged, roughhouse attitude in the cage.
Indeed, when you look back through Covington’s MMA record, he’s lost three fights from 20. One of those losses was to Warlley Alves back in 2015. That was a turning point for Covington. He was still relatively new in the UFC at that point but used the defeat to improve his ground game and refine his striking.
From there he went on a tear, notching up seven decision wins, including victories over Demian Maia and Robbie Lawler. A loss to Usman followed before Covington took out the welterweight legend, Tyron Woodley. He then suffered a second loss to Usman in a much closer fight before getting his most recent win against Jorge Masvidal in March 2022. The common opponent for Edwards and Covington is Usman.
Edwards has two wins from two over the former champion, Covington has two losses from two. That suggests the bookies are right to make Edwards the favourite.
However, they fought Usman at different stages of his career. Moreover, Edwards doesn’t fight like Usman. Therefore, Covington may fare better against a striker. Having said that, Covington does fight like Usman, and we know Edwards can cope with that style, which is why this is an intriguing main event.
Can Colby Covington upset the latest UFC odds? Will Leon Edwards find another perfect shot to retain his title this weekend?
The odds favour Edwards and, at 2/3 with most UK betting sites, he’s not bad value. However, if you want to squeeze some more value from UFC 296, here are some best bets we’ve found…
Takedown defence is going to be key for Edwards in this fight and, in all likelihood, he’ll have to weather a storm early on. Covington has endurance for days and will be shooting for takedowns every round.
Edwards needs to deal with this and, if he can keep his composure, there will be an opening. He’s a sniper when it comes to strikes, especially kicks. Therefore, as the fight wears on, expect Edwards to tag Covington if he’s getting desperate for takedowns. Looking at the odds, Edwards via TKO/KO in Round 4 at 25/1 looks like a solid bet.
Covington needs to establish his dominance early. If he doesn’t, Edwards will get in a flow and that’s when he’s most dangerous. A confident Covington could be trouble for Edwards. Defending takedowns against a wrestler like Covington is extremely tough and we saw a hint of doubt in Edwards during the first Usman fight.
He was tired and, were it not for his coach lighting a proverbial fire under him, the result could have been very different. If Covington can drag Edwards into deep waters, he could win the title by decision.
On the face of it, Covington can only win by getting the decision. That’s not to discount his striking skills, but the majority of his wins are by grinding out a decision. This strategy works well against other fighters with a grinding style, but Edwards is a sniper.
He times his shots better than most and that could be the difference in this fight. UFC fighter Molly McCann believes Edwards will get the KO win via a left-sided strike. The most likely kill shot is a head kick, but Covington will know this is a threat, so it could be a left hook that seals the deal for Edwards.
You can bet on Edwards vs Covington at the best UFC bookmakers and get exclusive bonuses with our registration links. Each link takes you to the registration page of our top-rated UK betting sites.
Our links also activate exclusive welcome bonuses. Once you’ve registered with a bookie and claimed your free bets, follow the steps below to bet on Edwards vs. Covington:
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Edwards vs Covington will take place at the UFC welterweight limit of 170 pounds/77 kg. Because this is a title fight, the weight limit is strict, meaning that both fighters need to weigh in at 170 pounds.
Belal Muhammad is the backup for Edwards against Covington because he’s the number #2 ranked welterweight in the UFC. He has a record of 23 wins and three losses.
He’s also fit, which makes him the ideal man to have on standby if Edwards or Covington gets injured.
Leon Edwards is, primarily, a striker. His sniper-like shots have become legendary. However, what’s interesting is that he only has seven TKO/KO wins from 24 fights.
That’s more TKO/KO wins than Covington, who has four from 20 fights, but it’s less than you might expect for a striker like Edwards.
Colby Covington has four submission wins from 20 fights, which equates to a submission rate of 24%. Leon Edwards has three submissions in his career. That gives him a submission rate of 14%. So, in this area, Covington is the more accomplished fighter.
Leon Edwards has 24 professional fights dating back to 2011. Covington has 20 fights dating back to 2012. There was a point where Covington was racking up fights at a faster rate than Edwards, but inactivity in recent years means he’s had four fewer contests than his opponent.
On pure TKO/KO losses alone, Covington is more likely to get knocked out than Edwards. Covington has one TKO loss on his record to Kamaru Usman back in 2019.
Edwards has never lost by TKO or KO. When we delve further into the stats, we can see that Edwards has a striking defence rate of 53%, which is slightly worse than Covington’s 55%.
However, Edwards also has a striking accuracy rate of 53%, while Covington’s is only 39%. So, based on the numbers, Covington looks more likely to lose by KO.
Alexandre Pantoja is an unconventional but highly effective grappler. He has 10 submission wins from 31 fights. However, he also has eight wins by TKO/KO.
He’s dangerous in every department and goes into his first title defence against Brandon Royval as the betting favourite. Royval is a game fighter who is equally slick on the ground.
However, he does have six losses from 21 fights. This, coupled with the fact he’s already lost to Pantoja by submission, suggests we could see a repeat performance.
There’s a chance Pantoja could suffer from nerves as he’s fighting as champion for the first time. But, if he can remain calm, another submission victory could be on the cards.
The main card of UFC 296 is stacked with great fights, but don’t sleep on the undercard. With popular fighters such as Cody Garbrandt fighting on the undercard, there’s going to be plenty of action from start to finish this weekend. Some of the undercard fights to look out for are:
- Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Stephen Thompson
- Tony Ferguson vs. Paddy Pimblett
- Irene Aldana vs. Karol Rosa
- Cody Garbrandt vs. Brian Kelleher
- Andre Fili vs. Lucas Almeida
You can watch the UFC 296 prelims and main card in the UK on TNT Sports. The action goes down in Las Vegas on December 16, which means it will be December 17 before the main card gets underway.
- Location: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas
- Date and time: December 16/17 (main event ring walks expected at approximately 5am UK time)
- TV/Streaming: TNT Sports Box Office
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