UFC 296: Leon Edwards vs Colby Covington Odds, Prediction & Betting Tips
British UFC welterweight champion Leon Edwards steps foot into Sin City for his second title defence as USA's Colby Covington looks to dethrone the 170lbs champion in the main event of 2023's final card.
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If there was any doubt whether Leon 'Rocky' Edwards was worthy of the belt he snatched from Kamaru Usman, then March's third meeting between the pair was as conclusive as any that the Birmingham fighter belongs with a gold strap over his shoulder. That dominant five-round masterclass over 'The Nigerian Nightmare' helped cement the 32-year-old's status as a domestic star and now the plan must be to mount a global assault, starting with an impressive outing at UFC 296 in Las Vegas.
His challenger, Colby 'Chaos' Covington, has been inactive for 21 months, last beating Jorge Masvidal in March 2022 by way of a unanimous decision. The controversial 'MAGA' supporter is certainly one of the organisation's bigger personalities and his dance with Edwards will mark his third shot at the 170lbs crown after coming up short twice against former holder Kamaru Usman in 2019 and 2021.
Leon Edwards vs Colby Covington Tips
Double Chance - Leon Edwards By KO/TKO or On Points
We can't get our head around why Leon is 4/6 to win but then a slightly higher 8/11 to win in the double chance market of KO/TKO and points given the opponent. Edwards has just a single submission win on his record, coming in his sixth fight with the organisation all the way back in 2016 on the Bisping vs Henderson headlined UFC 204 card. Add an astute wrestler in Covington, who lettered in all four years in high school wrestling and won a state championship as a senior, the Brit would be a fool to willingly take this bout to the ground.
With that avenue virtually ruled out - especially as "America's champion" carries only a single sub loss to The Ultimate Fighter winner Warlley Alves early into the Californian's career - we'll happily take the higher price on offer for him to win by the two means of victory he'll be chasing anyway.
This fight offers a really interesting stylistic matchup - Colby is going to use his excellent cardio and relentless pressure to try and smother Leon, taking him into uncomfortable territory. His chain wrestling will be the most challenging aspect for Edwards to manage, however, in Leon, Britain and the UFC have one of the most well-rounded fighters on their roster. The welterweight king has honed his takedown defence into a fine art, particularly in that title rematch with Usman earlier this year. That skill should see him thwart Covington's attempts to control this fight and if Rocky can keep things on the feet, which we believe he will, then the champ possesses the keys to victory over his opponent in this main event.
Leon Edwards To Win By KO/TKO/DQ
Although MMA maths doesn't always add up, the equation tells us that if Colby was conclusively defeated twice by Usman and Edwards proved beyond a reasonable doubt that he earned the belt over the division's former champ, then he should be able to overcome this challenge in his second title defence.
There isn't really a realm where Covington's lack of activity over the past two years can be spun into a positive. Leon has had twice as many fights as the American over the last few years, winning the belt and defending it, while besting a man considered the division's greatest ever, and someone who Covington couldn't hold a candle to for the majority of the nine rounds the two shared in the cage. Perhaps the challenger may argue that after two unsuccessful shots at the belt against Kamaru Usman, that this fresh challenge offers him a more favourable opponent to finally claim gold. But as Leon has evidenced, he can get the better of any welterweight wherever they try to take the fight, which we anticipate being the case on Saturday night in Las Vegas when Colby re-enters the Octagon to face a man brimming with confidence.
Colby knows his best plan is to try and manhandle Leon, utilising his wrestling to tire the champ while delivering as much damage as he can on the ground. However, he'll be incredibly fortuitous if he enjoys lengthy spells in this position against a great defensive operator such as Edwards. Donald Trump's favourite fighter is bound to bring his usual overenthusiastic self to this weekend's main event, and that is what we ultimately see being his downfall. Colby and Usman's last contest turned into a kickboxing match, which if this is a tactic he employs against the Brit, he's going to find himself flat on his back, staring at the bright lights before or during those championship rounds.
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