UFC 296 Predictions: Edwards vs Covington Prelims Picks & Odds

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15 December 2023

UFC 296 Predictions: Edwards vs Covington Prelims Picks & Odds

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UFC 296 is quickly approaching, airing live from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV on Saturday, Dec. 16. After covering the main event earlier this week, it’s now time to turn our attention to the preliminary and early prelims cards, which also feature a solid variety of betting opportunities.

Getting in on the action might be intimidating to some, but that’s why Betting News is here to make life easier. Continue reading for my UFC 296 predictions as we dive into all of the upcoming early action.

UFC 296 Predictions: Preliminary Card Odds & Picks

The UFC 296 odds are as of Friday, Dec. 15 at 11:31 a.m.

Alonzo Menifield vs. Dustin Jacoby Prediction — Light Heavyweight

Alonzo Menifield (+240)
Dustin Jacoby (-280)

Alonzo Menifield (14-3-1) is the massive underdog in this matchup despite a solid 5-1-1 record in his last seven fights. Nevertheless, he’s going up against Dustin Jacoby (19-7-1), who’s coming off a first-round TKO victory over Kennedy Nzechukwu back in August.

Menifield has looked great, but he hasn’t fought an opponent on Jacoby’s level just yet. “The Hanyak” is a dangerous striker with 12 knockout victories to his name, earning all but one of those victories in the opening frame.

There isn’t much value in an outright victory though, so let’s go with Jacoby winning via KO/TKO. Knockout victories are his bread and butter, so don’t be shocked if he leaves Menifield on the mat.

Menifield vs. Jacoby Prediction: Menifield via KO/TKO (+185)

Irene Aldana vs. Karol Rosa Prediction — Women’s Bantamweight

Irene Aldana (-171)
Karol Rosa (+146)

Irene Aldana (14-7) returns to action for the first time in six months after losing to Amanda Nunes (via unanimous decision) in an unsuccessful bid for the women’s bantamweight title. She makes her return against Karol Rosa (17-5), who’s coming off a split-decision win over Yana Santos.

After challenging for the title, I don’t see Aldana having much of an issue with Rosa. The underdog hardly had a decisive win over Santos while her last win before that came against Lina Lansberg, who’s lost four fights in a row. Rosa just doesn’t pose much of a threat to someone who’s already been near the top of the division.

Rosa is pretty good at surviving fights, though, proven by the fact that she hasn’t been finished in five years. With that in mind, backing Aldana to win via points is the way to go.

Aldana vs. Rosa Prediction: Aldana via Points (+105)

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Cody Garbrandt vs. Brian Kelleher Prediction — Bantamweight

Cody Garbrandt (-178)
Brian Kelleher (+153)

Cody Garbrandt (13-5) is in the middle of an underwhelming 2-5 run. Having said that, he is coming off a unanimous decision win over Trevin Jones at UFC 285. Standing across from him this weekend is Brian Kelleher (24-14), who’s suffered back-to-back submission losses to Umar Nurmagomedov and Mario Bautista.

Having just turned 37, Kelleher’s best days are likely behind him and I don’t see an upset occurring this weekend. Garbrandt hasn’t been perfect, but he at least has some momentum on his side as well as serviceable grappling, which could be an issue for Kelleher after being taken down three times in consecutive first-round losses.

As the underdog struggles to survive the first round, look for Garbrandt to win inside of the distance.

Garbrandt vs. Kelleher Prediction: Garbrandt Insided the Distance (+145)

Casey O'Neill vs. Ariane Lipski Prediction — Women’s Flyweight

Casey O'Neill (-185)
Ariane Lipski (+160)

Casey O’Neill (9-1) is in rare territory after suffering her first-ever loss to Jennifer Maia (via UD) at UFC 286 earlier this year. Meanwhile, Ariane Lipski (16-8) looks for a third straight win since returning to the flyweight division back in March.

As good as Lipski has looked since switching divisions, I can’t bring myself to doubt the favorite. O’Neill is a machine and there’s a reason why she’s finished four of her last six opponents. She also averages twice as many significant strikes per minute (8.77 vs. 3.94) with much better accuracy (55% vs. 39%) than Lipski, which could wind up underwhelming the underdog.

Considering how three of Lipski’s four career KO/TKO losses occurred in her last six fights, I like the value that comes with O’Neill winning inside the distance.

O’Neill vs. Lipski Prediction: O’Neill Insided the Distance (+190)

UFC 296 Predictions: Early Prelims Odds & Picks

Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Cody Durden Prediction — Flyweight

Tagir Ulanbekov (-163)
Cody Durden (+143)

Tagir Ulanbekov (14-2) has been near-flawless since his UFC debut, going 3-1 in his last four fights. He looks to keep the momentum going against Cody Durden (16-4-1), who heads into UFC 296 riding a four-fight winning streak.

While Ulanbekov deserves to be the favorite, it’s important to remember that Durden has won four straight fights as the underdog. He’s constantly proving his doubters wrong and while the odds aren’t in his favor, he’ll make this fight closer than oddsmakers predict.

With how close things could be, I do see this fight going the distance, meaning it’s most likely that Ulanbekov will need to win via points to get the job done.

Ulanbekov vs. Durden Prediction: Ulanbekov via Points (+160)

Andre Fili vs. Lucas Almeida Prediction — Featherweight

Andre Fili (-160)
Lucas Almeida (+140)

Andre Fili (22-10, 1 NC) has been heading in the wrong direction lately, going 2-4 with a no-contest in his last seven fights. The good news for him is that Lucas Almeida (14-2) doesn’t have much momentum after a submission loss to Pat Sabatini in his latest outing.

Fili is the more well-rounded fighter, so I see him picking up the win in Las Vegas. Almeida has shown promise here and there, but he’s only fought four times in the last four years and hasn’t won since June 2022. In other words, I see Fili getting back on track.

Nevertheless, with how unpredictable both competitors have been, I’m taking a neutral approach by backing the fight to go the distance. After all, 11 of Fili’s last 14 fights went the distance and I can see his grappling helping him take control of the fight, wearing Almeida down until the judges are forced to make a decision.

Fili vs. Almeida Prediction: Fight to Go the Distance (+155)

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Martin Buday vs. Shamil Gaziev Prediction — Heavyweight

Martin Buday (-127)
Shamil Gaziev (+107)

Martin Buday (13-1) is showing zero signs of slowing down, earning his 12th straight win with a first-round submission victory over Josh Parisian four months ago. Standing opposite him is the undefeated Shamil Gaziev (11-0), who’s making his debut at UFC 296.

This is going to be a hard-hitting bout between two heavyweights with 14 KO/TKO victories between them. With that in mind, I will be taking Buday to since he already has a handful of UFC victories under his belt. Gaziev is more than capable of pulling off the upset, but he still needs to prove that he can handle the world’s best heavyweights at the UFC level.

Let’s take Buday on the moneyline here.