UFC 287: Gilbert Burns vs. Jorge Masvidal odds, picks and predictions

In a welterweight bout on the main card, Gilbert Burns and Jorge Masvidal meet at UFC 287 at Kaseya Center in Miami. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 287: Burns vs. Masvidal odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims are on ESPN+ at 6 p.m. ET, while the prelims can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET. The main card begins at 10 p.m. on Pay-Per-View.

Burns bounced back from a unanimous-decision loss to Khamzat Chimaev at UFC 273 in April 2022 to submit veteran Neil Magny at UFC 283 last time out in January.

The Brazilian, a.k.a. “Durinho”, has alternated wins and losses across the past 5 outings. He has gone the distance in 5 of the past 8 fights — with 4 wins — dating back to Aug. 2019 and is 1-1 via KO/TKO with a 2-0 mark via submission during the span, showing his tremendous versatility.

Burns stands an inch shorter than his counterpart and gives up 3 inches in reach. However, he has a 56.82% significant strikes accuracy percentage, and a solid 2.03 takedown average. The Brazilian is 2 years younger, too.

Masvidal is looking to halt a 3-bout losing skid, including a unanimous-decision loss against Colby Covington in his most recent showing at UFC 272 in March 2022. That setback followed up a pair of title bout losses to Kamaru Usman in 2020 and 2021, giving Masvidal his first-ever 3-bout losing streak.

He has gone the distance in 2 of those 3 losses, and he has managed just 6 finishes with 1 doctor’s stoppage across the past 19 bouts at the UFC level.

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UFC 287: Burns vs. Masvidal odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:40 a.m. ET.

UFC 287: Burns vs. Masvidal picks and predictions

Records: Burns (21-5-0) | Masvidal (35-16-0)

Burns (-450) should be able to do enough to get it done against the veteran Masvidal, but risking 4 1/2 times your potential return is way too risky with not enough reward.

Masvidal will be looking to keep this bout upright to avoid Burns being able to use his tremendous wrestling ability to get a finish. The only hope the veteran Masvidal has is to turn this into a brawl, raining punches on the heavy favorite.

However, Burns will be able to weather the storm and is currently the much more well-rounded fighter of the pair. I think METHOD OF VICTORY:BURNS BY DECISION (+150) is the best value, as Masvidal is a wily veteran who will be able to keep the heavy favorite from knocking him out or submitting him. However, the Brazilian will do enough to wow the judges.

If you don’t want to declare a winner, but still want action, playing HOW WILL THE FIGHT FINISH? DECISION (+130) for the fight finish is the way to go and is a tremendous value.

Burns went the distance in 2 of his past 3 fights, including the loss to Chimaev and a win over Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson in July 2021. Masvidal has also gone the distance in 2 of the previous 3 bouts.