UFC Fight Night 224: Dern vs. Hill odds, picks and predictions

In a woman’s strawweight bout in the main event, Mackenzie Dern and Angela Hill meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 224 at UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 224: Dern vs. Hill odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN+ at 4 p.m. ET, with the main card on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Dern takes the walk looking to bounce back from a majority decision setback against Yan Xiaonan in the main event of Fight Night 211 in October. The Brazilian fight is 0-2 in main event fights as she previously lost to Marina Rodriguez by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night 194 in Oct. 2021. Dern has gone the distance in each of her last 3 bouts.

Hill was in a tailspin, going 1-5 in a 6-bout stretch from May 2020 to May 2022 but she has picked up unanimous-decision wins over Loopy Godinez in August and Emily Ducote in December to right the ship. Hill has gone the distance in each of her past 9 bouts.

Hill holds a 1.5-inch reach advantage and has an impressive 5.68-to-3.02 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Hill also has a 29.27% takedown accuracy percentage but Dern may be more dangerous on the mat with a 1.82 submission average to just 0.10 for Hill.

UFC Fight Night 224: Dern vs. Hill odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:24 a.m. ET.

UFC Fight Night 224: Dern vs. Hill picks and predictions

Records: Dern (12-3-0) | Hill (15-12-0)

HILL (+150) is a solid value as a moderate underdog. Dern has dropped 2 of her last 3 fights, both main events, and Hill should be able to do enough to wow the judges to get the victory.

Hill lands a lot more punches than Dern and should be able to do more to impress judges. The only way Hill will be at a disadvantage is if Dern can get this fight to the fence or mat and keep it there.

YES (-135): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is the best play on the board.

Dern has gone the distance in each of the previous 3 bouts, while Hill has needed the judges to decide a winner in each of her past 9 outings.

It’s hard to believe that this number isn’t much, much higher, so take advantage. However, AVOID playing Over 3.5 Rounds (-200), as risking 2 times your potential return is just too expensive.