UFC Fight Night 235: Moicano vs. Dober odds, picks and predictions
In a 3-round lightweight bout on the main card, Renato Moicano and Drew Dober meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 235 — also known as UFC on ESPN+ 93 and UFC Vegas 85 — at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 235: Moicano vs. Dober odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims begin at 4 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+, while the main card starts at 7 p.m. ET, also on ESPN+.
Records: Moicano (17-5-1) | Dober (27-12-0)
Moicano rebounded from a unanimous-decision loss to Rafael Dos Anjos with a 1st-round submission win over Brad Riddell at UFC 281 in Nov. 2022. He was supposed to take on Arman Tsarukyan last April, but he was forced to pull out due to a knee injury. As such, he hasn’t taken the walk in nearly 14 months.
Dober picked up a 1st-round KO/TKO win over Ricky Glenn last time out in early October, barely breaking a sweat in 2:36 of fight time. Each of his past 5 fights have ended via knockout, with 4 wins and 1 setback. His last fight to go the distance was June 12, 2021, at UFC 263 in a unanimous-decision loss to Riddell.
Moicano is a year younger than the challenger, and he has a slight 2-inch reach advantage. The Brazilian fighter also has a slight 4.75-to-4.58 advantage over the southpaw Dober while he is also more accurate at 50.33% to just 45.68% for the underdog.
In addition, Moicano does better work on getting the fight to the mat, posting a 1.66 takedown average and 46.67% takedown accuracy percentage while managing a 0.71 submission average.
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UFC Fight Night 235: Moicano vs. Dober odds
BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:30 a.m. ET.
UFC Fight Night 235: Moicano vs. Dober picks and predictions
Moicano (-175) is a little too expensive. As such, you’ll need to get a little more specific in terms of the method of victory.
Moicano does tremendous work on the canvas, and 3 of his past 4 fights, and 6 of his previous 11 bouts, at the UFC level have ended via submission, including 5 victories via the method since Aug. 2018.
Moicano has never won via KO/TKO, so there is no sense including it in the 5-way Method of Victory prop. Instead, look to MOICANO BY SUBMISSION (+125) in the 7-way Method of Victory prop for your best bet.
OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (+105) has ended up going past the middle of Round 2 in 2 of his past 4 fights. Dober has finished in Round 1 in 3 of his past 5 fights, so there is a little risk here. But I think these 2 feel each other for a little while, and Over is the best way to go.
However, this fight should finish inside the distance. However, No (-375): Will fight go the distance? will cost you nearly 4 times your potential return, and there is just no value there.
