UFC 287: Gilbert Burns vs Jorge Masvidal Picks and Predictions
Gilbert Burns vs. Jorge Masvidal is scheduled for three rounds in the welterweight division as a featured attraction on the UFC 287 undercard, taking place at the Miami-Dade Arena in Miami, FL.
Despite a three-fight losing streak and a laundry list of rivals calling for his head, Masvidal can get into the thick of the title picture with a win over Burns.
UFC odds are making Burns a huge -490 favorite. Fan-favorite Masvidal is a +390 underdog who is in dire need of a win.
Here are our picks and predictions for Burns vs. Masvidal at UFC 287 in Miami.
Gilbert Burns vs Jorge Masvidal fight odds
Gilbert Burns vs Jorge Masvidal method of victory odds
Gilbert Burns vs Jorge Masvidal picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Gilbert Burns vs Jorge Masvidal betting preview
This big welterweight fight features two fighters who are clearly heading in different directions. Gilbert Burns is fighting as well as he ever has, and Jorge Masvidal is being kept afloat due to his popularity. Masvidal is a marked man, and if he can pull off a significant upset against rival Burns, he just might get another shot at the title.
Burns is 3-2 in his last five, with his lone defeats being competitive affairs against then-champ Kamaru Usman, and a war of attrition against Khamzat Chimaev. He just came off a dominant win over Neil Magny at UFC 283, where he submitted the durable veteran in the first round. Though he’s known for his BJJ, he has shown the striking chops to compete with Masvidal’s boxing.
That said, the easiest path for a Burns victory is through his grappling. “Durinho” is going to test Masvidal’s legs and ground defense early and often, especially as his opponent has been taken down 13 times in his last three fights alone. If Masvidal can stay upright, Burns’ chin and cardio should allow him to keep pace in the striking battle.
Masvidal has lost three in a row, and is 5-5 in his last 10 fights. While his recent losses came in two bouts to Usman and Colby Covington, he didn’t win a single round against them. He’s also 38 years old and has been out of the octagon for 13 months, though the odds seem harsh considering his tenacity and perceived advantage in striking versus Burns.
This isn’t the first time Masvidal has been painted as a desperate underdog. He’ll have to keep Burns outside using his three-inch reach advantage, and hopefully, he has the conditioning to resist takedown attempts while taking the lead in the striking battle. It might be against his character, but Masvidal must box efficiently and leave the “B.M.F.” business for another day.
With Masvidal on the wrong side of 30 and Burns showing out as good as he has, it’s no surprise the odds are this lopsided. Still, avenues exist for Masvidal to score an upset, it’s just that everything has to go in his favor for it to happen. For Masvidal, it’s hard to see him keeping his emotions in check for that to happen.
Gilbert Burns vs Jorge Masvidal tale of the tape
Gilbert Burns vs Jorge Masvidal UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: Burns moneyline
Though the odds are higher than they should be, Burns will win. There’s nothing I’ve seen from Masvidal – even in the fights he won – that suggests he’s still a top-tier welterweight. Burns is right up there with Covington and Usman, which is two rungs above Masvidal. The inactivity doesn’t bode well for him also.
This is also a bad style for Masvidal. Burns can get hit, but he has sneaky power and will likely be the aggressor as he tries to get Masvidal on the mat. Burns is the better fighter at this point, and as scrappy as Masvidal is by reputation, his recent form suggests those days are behind him.
We’re going with Burns to deal a career-threatening defeat to Masvidal.
Prediction: Burns moneyline (-490 at DraftKings)
Fight best bet: Burns by decision
These two have good cardio and solid chins, so a stoppage might be a bit of a reach. I expect Burns to get Masvidal on the mat, locking him down as Covington did for a remarkable 16 minutes. With Burns initiating the offense and scoring multiple takedowns, this fight should be locked up pending any last-minute drama in the third round.
Even if Masvidal is slow to the trigger, Burns isn’t going to out-macho him when he can diffuse his striking by other means. This goes the distance, and Burns wins on the scorecards.
Pick: Burns by decision (+140 at DraftKings)
