UFC 288: Aljamain Sterling vs. Henry Cejudo odds, picks & predictions

In a bantamweight title bout in the main event, Aljamain Sterling and Henry Cejudo meet Saturday at UFC 288 at Prudential Center in Newark, N.J. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims are on ESPN+ at 6:30 p.m. ET, with prelims on ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET. The main card can be viewed on Pay-Per-View at 10 p.m. ET.

Sterling puts his strap on the line for his 3rd consecutive title defense fight. He knocked out TJ Dillashaw at UFC 280 in his most recent fight in late October and has 3 finishes in the past 4 outings — including a 1st-round submission of Cory Sandhagen at UFC 250 in June 2020. Overall, he has won 8 straight fights.

The “Funk Master” has a whopping 7-inch reach advantage and stands 3 inches taller than his counterpart. Sterling also holds a 4.70-to-3.92 significant strikes landed per minute advantage and is much more accurate with his strikes at 60.32%, to just 53.99% for Cejudo.

If Cejudo has a slight advantage, it’s in the ground game, and that’s where he’ll want to get the fight as quickly as possible as he looks to avoid that giant reach advantage for the champ.

Cejudo has recorded 3 consecutive KO/TKO wins over Dillashaw (1st round, January 2019), Marlon Moraes (3rd round, June 2019) and Dominick Cruz (2nd round, May 2020). This is his first fight since the Cruz match, as the former division champ laid the gloves down and retired, vacating the bantamweight title.

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UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:05 a.m. ET.

UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo picks and predictions

Records: Sterling (22-3-0) | Cejudo (16-2-0)

It’s rather surprising to see STERLING (+100) as the slight underdog, but I’ll take him any day of the week.

Cejudo was a great fighter back in the day, but he is now 36 years old and coming off a 3-year hiatus. Who knows how his cardio and stamina will be? Facing a top-tier opponent like Sterling is a bit much for his return bout, and I expect the champ to use his tremendous reach advantage to knock out Cejudo.

Playing STERLING BY KO/TKO OR DQ (+800) for a chance to multiply your initial wager by 8 times is also too hard to pass up.

Play NO: FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE (+110) at plus money.

Again, I’ll roll the dice on Sterling getting the KO/TKO win. I am just not feeling Cejudo after the long layoff, and I expect there to be rust. I am concerned about his stamina, and being able to go a full 5 rounds against a championship-caliber fighter after such a long time out of the octagon. I don’t think this goes the distance, and it’s rather surprising to see ‘No’ at plus money.