UFC 292: Aljamain Sterling vs. Sean O’Malley odds, picks & predictions

In a 5-round bantamweight championship bout on the main card, Aljamain Sterling and Sean O’Malley meet at UFC 292 at TD Garden in Boston Saturday. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 292: Sterling vs. O’Malley odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

Records: Sterling (23-3-0) | O’Malley (16-1-0)

The early prelims begin at 6:30 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+. The prelims start at 8 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View.

Sterling took the strap from Petr Yan at UFC 259, and he has defended it on 3 occasions—winning twice via split decision. That includes his last defense and Henry Cejudo at UFC 288 in early May.

Sterling is the champ, and he has been dominant, rattling off 9 straight victories since a 1st-round KO/TKO to Marlon Moraes in Dec. 2017. However, he has ended up going the distance in 5 of those 9 bouts, including 2 narrow split-decision wins in his past 3 outings.

O’Malley has 4 victories in the past 5 outings, with a no contest against Pedro Munhoz at UFC 276. He picked up a split-decision win over Yan last time out at UFC 280, while registering 3 KO/TKO wins in 2021.

The champ gives up an inch in reach advantage, but he has the significant experience and has fought some of the best in the division. O’Malley has had mixed results against some of the best at the top of the welterweight class, topping Yan, while falling to Marlon Vera at UFC 252. This will be a huge step up for “Sugar”.

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UFC 292: Sterling vs. O’Malley odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:17 a.m. ET.

UFC 292: Sterling vs. O’Malley picks and predictions

O’MALLEY (+200) is a strong play for a chance to double up. It obviously won’t be easy, but the challenger is known for his speed and tremendous amount of punches. He has posted 7.43 significant strikes per minute, to the more measured 4.78 for Sterling (-250).

O’Malley is just as accurate in the strikes category, too, posting 61.29% to 61.32% for the champ. Sterling is going to be dodging and weaving, trying to find a way to get Sugar to the canvas. That’s where Sterling holds a significant advantage, posting a 2.02 takedown average and 0.80 submission average. For O’Malley to win, he needs to keep this fight upright, or it could turn on a dime.

YES (+165): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is worth a roll of the dice.

Sterling has ended up going the distance in 2 of his past 3 title fights, and 9 of his past 14 UFC bouts overall. He is precise, he makes the judges notice his technique, and he is a very smart fighter. However, O’Malley is quick, wild and powerful. He has been involved in 6 KO/TKO results in the past 8 UFC fights, winning 5 of those. However, when he faced a significant upgrade in opponent against Yan, he ended up going the distance. Sterling is a top-notch fighter who will make O’Malley go all the way if he wants to win.