UFC 292: Marlon Vera vs. Pedro Munhoz odds, picks and predictions

In a 3-round bantamweight bout on the main card, Marlon Vera and Pedro Munhoz meet at UFC 292 at TD Garden in Boston Saturday. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 292: Vera vs. Munhoz odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

Records: Vera (20-8-1) | Munhoz (20-7-0)

The early prelims begin at 6:30 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+. The prelims start at 8 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View.

Vera is looking to bounce back after losing the main event at UFC San Antonio in late March against Cory Sandhagen. That setback stopped a 4-bout win streak for the Ecuadoran fighter.

Vera, a.k.a. “Chito”, has ended up going the distance in 4 of his past 6 fights, winning 2 of those bouts. He has a pair of KO/TKO wins over Dominick Cruz and Frankie Edgar during the span.

Munhoz takes the walk looking to build upon a unanimous-decision win over Chris Gutierrez last time out in mid-April. It was his first win after a pair of UD losses to Jose Aldo and Cruz, as well as a no contest against Sean O’Malley at UFC 276.

Munhoz has ended up going the distance in 6 of his past 7 bouts, with the no-decision as the only exception.

Vera enters the octagon with an impressive 5.5-inch reach advantage, while Munhoz holds a 5.30-to-4.09 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. However, Chito lands way more of those strikes, hitting at a 53.29% clip, while Munhoz lands just 45.36% of his significant strikes.

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UFC 292: Vera vs. Munhoz odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:15 a.m. ET.

UFC 292: Vera vs. Munhoz picks and predictions

Vera (-200) is a little too expensive to bet on the 2-way line, costing you 2 times your potential return.

The Ecuadoran champ was on track for a title shot until losing a narrow split-decision against Sandhagen last time out. He had fought in 3 straight fight night main events, winning 2 of them against top-notch talent.

The favorite has ended up going the distance in 4 of the past 6 fights, while Munhoz has needed the judges to decide a winner in 6 of the past 7 fights, and his no contest against “Sugar” Sean O’Malley was headed that way, too. The best play is to go with VERA ON POINTS (-105) at near even-money against the Brazilian.

Yes (-300): Will the fight go the distance? is just way too pricey, costing 3 times your potential return. You must wager $10 for every $3.33 of winnings. That’s just too much risk for not enough reward.