UFC 299: O'Malley vs Vera Odds, Picks & Predictions

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06 March 2024

UFC 299: O'Malley vs Vera Odds, Picks & Predictions

"Suga" Sean O'Malley has just one blemish on his career, and that blemish is none other than Marlon Vera. Our UFC picks expect Suga to get his revenge on "Chito" and walk out of UFC 299 with the strap.

"Suga" Sean O'Malley will make his first bantamweight title defense as he faces Marlon "Chito" Vera in the headline event for UFC 299 betting on March 9.

O'Malley is eager to make a statement with the only loss in his MMA career coming against Vera back in 2020. He's expected to get revenge this weekend as UFC odds have the champ labeled a -270 favorite with Vera coming back at +215.

Here are my best free picks and betting predictions for UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 from the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida.

Sean O'Malley vs Marlon Vera fight odds

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O'Malley vs Vera picks

Fight prediction: O'Malley ML

I wouldn't describe an injury win in a combat sport as a fluke, but Marlon Vera's previous victory against Sean O'Malley in 2020 is unlikely to happen again. Vera managed to land a low kick to O'Malley's peroneal nerve causing a rare instance of drop foot which led to O'Malley falling to the mat unable to defend himself.

Let's not forget that before the injury, O'Malley looked to have the advantage in the standup and was stringing together combinations. "Suga" has also made strides as a fighter since that bout and appears to be hitting his peak while "Chito" hasn't shown much improvement over the last few years.

Vera is hittable and has struggled against point-based strikers with good lateral movement which we've seen in defeats to Cory Sandhagen and Jose Aldo. Even in recent victories against Rob Font and Dominick Cruz, Vera was getting significantly out-struck and needed to land power shots to pick up the win.

While Vera's finishing ability makes him dangerous, he has just two stoppage wins in his last seven fights, and those came against washed-up versions of Cruz and Frankie Edgar.

O'Malley has a similar skill-set to Sandhagen and his creative striking angles, feints, and fluid combinations should give Vera fits. Expect O'Malley to avoid dangerous exchanges with Vera and pick up a win.

Prediction: O'Malley ML (-270 at Bet99)

Fight best bet: O'Malley by decision

While I'm backing O'Malley to get the win, I don't see him stopping Vera inside the distance. Keep in mind the durable Chito has never been finished or even knocked down in his lengthy career.

In addition, Vera is a slow starter that tends to give up early rounds, and that's something that would be costly against a fighter like O'Malley

Expect O'Malley to rely on his reach and movement to pick apart the challenger at range over 25 minutes.

Pick: O'Malley by decision (+130 at Bet99)

O'Malley vs Vera betting preview

O'Malley's loss to Vera is the only L on his resume, and he's reeled off five consecutive wins since. After knocking out Thomas Almeida, Kris Moutinho, and Raulian Paiva, he experienced a big step in competition against former champ Petr Yan a year and a half ago.

Despite entering that fight as a +285 underdog he ended up winning a split decision which earned him a title shot against Aljamain Sterling. Suga once again beat the odds — this time as a +235 underdog — knocking out Sterling in the second round to claim the 135-pound belt.

O'Malley is a long and rangy bantamweight who uses a diverse striking arsenal to land 7.25 significant strikes per minute. The 29-year-old is a flashy kickboxer with knockout power, and he has claimed a Performance of the Night or Fight of the Night bonus in eight of his last nine bouts.

Despite being just 31 years old, Vera has been fighting in the UFC for a decade, compiling a 15-7 record inside the octagon. He's 5-1 in his last six fights and in his most recent showing in August he defeated Pedro Munhoz by unanimous decision.

Chito is a brawler who is dangerous in the pocket and the clinch and can also threaten with submissions. While he has an impressive finish rate of 78.2% in his career (eight wins by knockout and 10 by submission) he has just two wins by stoppage in his last seven bouts.