UFC 292: Marlon Vera vs Pedro Munhoz Picks and Predictions

Marlon Vera is the better striker and should probably be a more definitive betting favorite in this fight, but his last letdown might have oddsmakers uncertain. Still, he should handle Munhoz, but the 36-year-old has never once been KO'd.

A bantamweight crossroads clash between Marlon Vera and Pedro Munhoz takes place this weekend at UFC 292, taking place at the TD Arena in Boston.

Though Vera had his sights on a grudge match with Henry Cejudo, an injury has opened the door for Munhoz to take a shot to revitalize his career.

The change in opponents has UFC oddsmakers favoring Vera at -198, and Munhoz is instilled as a +164 underdog. 

Here are my free picks for Vera vs. Munhoz at UFC 292 from Boston.

Marlon Vera vs Pedro Munhoz fight odds

Marlon Vera vs Pedro Munhoz method of victory odds

Marlon Vera vs Pedro Munhoz picks

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.

If you’re signing up for a new sportsbook for UFC betting, here are two of the best bonuses* available:

B) Get a 20% profit boost on one UFC bet every week at Unibet! Bet Now

best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

Marlon Vera vs Pedro Munhoz betting preview

The last time Marlon Vera was in the octagon, he was on the wrong end of a five-round beatdown courtesy of Cory Sandhagen. His lackadaisical effort made him vulnerable enough for Henry Cejudo to call him out to shake off some additional ring rust, but it wasn’t meant to be. Instead, he’s in a better situation against division gatekeeper Munhoz.

Vera is not a fast starter, but he’s an accurate Muay Thai striker. The all-action fighter stays in the pocket and tries to pick his opponents off, sacrificing a few shots to land his big ones. While Vera tends to get hit more than he lands, his accuracy and superior striking power should stand out against a likewise defensively compromised opponent.  

Munhoz broke a three-fight winless streak with a win over Chris Gutierrez last April. He has gone 2-4 with one no-contest in his last seven fights — a troubling sign for the 36-year-old veteran. 

The fight is likely to remain a striking battle, and Munhoz is heavy on activity for better or worse. 

Munhoz’s activity sees him land at a high rate but he absorbs his fair share of punishment and isn’t accurate. He has to hope he has enough left in the tank, and a win here will ensure he’ll remain relevant.

Marlon Vera vs Pedro Munhoz tale of the tape

Marlon Vera vs Pedro Munhoz UFC prediction and best bet

Fight prediction: Vera ML

These two are fighting for survival, but Munhoz has been flailing for a long time. For a time, he was the rebound opponent for badly faded vets who needed to get back in the win column. Those losses to Frankie Edgar, Jose Aldo, and Dominick Cruz haven’t aged well. 

With this figuring to be a striking battle, Vera has the advantage due to his better technique. Munhoz is busy, but he leaves himself wide open for counters, which gives Vera openings to score at any point during the fight.

“Chito” holds a two-inch advantage in height and a five-inch advantage in reach. He’ll be able to pick Munhoz off on the outside and fight him off when the two get in closer quarters.

The odds seem close now because of how poor Vera looked against Sandhagen. Had he performed slightly better, he would be a definitive favorite. Vera is more likely to regain momentum at this stage of his career compared to Munhoz, and I’m picking him to win.

Prediction: Marlon Vera moneyline (-198 at DraftKings)

Fight best bet: Vera by decision

Both fighters are good finishers, but they both tend to start slowly. Vera is the superior striker with more upside and a better track record against top opposition, so he should be able to handle Munhoz easier than the odds suggest.

Eventually, Munhoz will fight back, but he’ll be too far behind on the cards where he can win by decision. Munhoz hasn’t stopped an opponent since Cody Garbrandt in 2019, and he’s never been knocked out. Vera should outclass him, but he won’t stop him.

This is a fight I can easily see going the distance. If the fight does start slowly, Vera should still be able to score enough during the downtime, and he’ll land the harder shots as he takes advantage of Munhoz’s poor striking defense. 

The best bet to make here is Vera winning a decision at -105.

Pick: Marlon Vera to win by decision (-105 at DraftKings)