UFC 295 betting tips and Pavlovich vs Aspinall predictions

Enfield Independent

10 November 2023

UFC 295 betting tips and Pavlovich vs Aspinall predictions

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Aspinall has had just two and a half weeks to prepare as he bids to become Britain's third UFC champion and are confident he can come out on top.

The Salford-born fighter is odds-on to improve on his 6-1 UFC record and potentially set up a showdown with the winner of Jones vs Miocic in the future.

We’ve come up with two selections for the Aspinall against Pavlovich, and one tip for the main event as part of our UFC 295 predictions.

Sergei Pavlovich vs Tom Aspinall betting tips

A potential heavyweight title fight looked like a remote possibility for Aspinall when he suffered a gruesome knee injury seconds into his contest with Curtis Blaydes in 2022.

But he looked to have exorcised those demons when he demolished Marcin Tybura in 73 seconds in his comeback fight in July, earning him performance of the night.

The 30-year-old now ranks fourth amongst UFC heavyweight challengers, two spots below KO machine Pavlovich.

After losing his UFC debut to Alistair Overeem via TKO, the Russian has demolished his next six opponents.

Pavlovich has recorded six consecutive first-round stoppages – the longest first-round KO streak in UFC history – with two of his last three fights ending inside the opening minute.

Pavlovich has put his massive arms to good use in all those fights and has never really been troubled by his opponents. He’s also had the extra time to prepare for this bout having been the original back-up for Jones vs Miocic.

Extra preparation time or not, this is still the toughest bout of Pavlovich’s UFC career against a fighter in Aspinall. His previous opponents have been a step down from the Brit and Pavlovich's one-dimensional style could be exposed.

Aspinall is the more well-rounded, technical fighter, possessing the ability to hurt Pavolich in multiple ways. Aspinall’s arsenal features a strong leg kick, the ability to grapple on the floor and a lightning-fast counter.

He has two submission victories on his record too, but this fight seems more likely to end via stoppage given these two have spent just 33 minutes combined inside the Octagon.

Pavolich’s punch power is scary, but we’re backing Aspinall to stay out of harm’s way, work out his opponent and eventually put him down.

No early night for heavy hitters

Between Pavlovich and Aspinall, only one of their 14 UFC fights has made it into the second round, and are expecting another early finish.

The under-over total rounds line has been set at 1.5, with the under odds-on. With these two averaging the most strikes per minute in UFC heavyweight history, it’s easy to see why the odds are the way they are.

But there are reasons to like the over in this scenario.

The fighters tend to respect one another's power when two big hitters meet, leading to some cagey opening exchanges.

Aspinall and Pavlovich would be foolish to charge in, while the significance of the winner becoming interim champion and potentially going on to get a heavyweight title shot might make both men a little more cautious.

With our final Pavlovich vs Aspinall prediction, we’ll take the over 1.5 rounds at 33/20 with 10Bet.

Jiri Prochazka vs Alex Pereira predictions

The main event appears unlikely to go the distance too when big-hitters Prochazka and Pereira try to regain UFC gold.

Prochazka is returning to the Octagon after the best part of 17 months out with a shoulder injury. The Czech captured the UFC light heavyweight with a submission win over Glover Teixeira in his last fight before being forced to relinquish the belt.

Now, he steps in with Pereira, who is moving up a weight class after dropping his middleweight title to Israel Adesanya earlier in the year.

The Brazilian bounced back from that defeat to improve to 8-2 by getting the decision against Jan Blachowicz in July in his light heavyweight debut

Prochazka has the edge in terms of experience with a record of 29-3-1 and had been on a run of 13 straight wins before his injury.

But the shoulder issue and subsequent time out of action for Prochazka, coupled with ex-kicker boxer Pereira potentially being the better striker in what is likely to be a stand-up affair, might give the edge to the man nicknamed ‘Hands of Stone’.

Chris is an experienced sports betting writer who has worked with most major bookmakers and national media outlets, such as Racing Post and ITN. He covers a wide range of sports with his favourites being NFL, rugby, football and Formula 1.