UFC 296: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Brandon Royval odds, picks & predictions

In a 5-round flyweight championship bout in the co-main event, Alexandre Pantoja and Brandon Royval meet Saturday at UFC 296 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 296: Pantoja vs. Royval odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ starting at 6:30 p.m. ET, with the prelims on ESPN2/ESPN+ starting at 8 p.m. ET, and the main card begins on Pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET.

Records: Pantoja (26-5-0) | Royval (15-6-0)

Pantoja plucked the flyweight strap from Brandon Moreno at UFC 290 last time out with a split-decision victory. He has 4 straight victories since his most recent loss to Askar Askarov via unanimous decision in July 2020 on Fight Island. “The Cannibal” has ended up going the distance in 3 of his past 5 fights and 7 of his 13 fights at the UFC level.

Royval gets his 1st crack at a UFC belt. He enters on a 3-bout win streak, and he has done it a number of different ways. He has a split-decision win over Rogerio Bontorin, a submission win over Matt Schnell and a KO/TKO victory against Matheus Nicolau. The 2 finishes each came in Round 1.

Royval holds a slight half-inch reach advantage, but the southpaw has managed just 3.45 significant strikes landed per minute to 4.41 for the champ. Pantoja is also more accurate at 52.29% to just 46.22% for Royval. On the ground, Royval owns a 2.32-to-1.03 submission average advantage.

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UFC 296: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Brandon Royval odds

FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:46 a.m. ET.

UFC Fight Night 296: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Brandon Royval picks and predictions

Both of these fighters are tremendous grapplers, so if the fight gets to the canvas, and it almost certainly will, the best bet on the board might simply be to play SUBMISSION (-105) under the prop section “how fight will end”. You needn’t declare a winner, and get this prop at near even-money.

I think Pantoja (-190) is able to hang onto his belt, but you can’t lay nearly 2 times your potential return. Instead, take PANTOJA BY SUBMISSION (+145) in the “method of victory” section for a much better value.

No: Will the fight go the distance? (-600) is a crazy play, costing you 6 times your potential return. There is no way to ever justify that kind of a play. I kinda like the value on OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (+120), however. Pantoja has 3 decisions in his past 5 fights, although Royval has fought into the 2nd half of Round 2 just once in the past 6 fights, when his bout with Bontorin went all the way. So there is some risk here.