UFC 299 predictions, odds, best bets: Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon Vera is a tough headliner to call

Welcome back to another UFC breakdown in anticipation of a star-studded card for UFC 299. Saturday’s event features the bantamweight championship between Sean O’Malley and Marlon Vera.

I’m here to decode their headliner and a couple of other exciting fights on the slate, but if there’s any matchup you’d like to discuss further, please let me know in the comment section below!

I’d also like to announce my new home for MMA Premium content, which is EstablishTheRun. You can find breakdowns like this for every fight on the slate each week moving forward — and please follow me on Twitter at @BrettAppley if you want more information.

Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon Vera

We have an exciting rematch to headline the UFC 299 slate. O’Malley will defend his bantamweight title against Vera.

These two last fought in 2020, and Vera was able to finish O’Malley with strikes on the ground in the first round. O’Malley hurt his leg early on in that round and had trouble standing upright. He eventually stumbled backward when Vera chased him down, and Vera was able to swarm for a finish.

Although that’s not the first time we’ve seen O’Malley injured in a fight, I expect a longer scrap on Saturday night — possibly a full five rounds. O’Malley, clearly, has climbed the ladder of the division since that loss and looked more impressive than ever in his most recent knockout win against Aljamain Sterling. He’s continued to show fight-ending power throughout his career, and that’s the sixth knockout O’Malley has earned within the UFC.

He’s also proven to be a legit round-winner based on his striking metrics at distance. O’Malley lands 7.25 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.51 per minute, with a 61 percent defensive rate. He defends head strikes very well, and that’s arguably his biggest edge, as opponents have failed to land on him at a high rate. While there may still be some questions about O’Malley’s wrestling and durability, he’s one of the top per-minute strikers in this division, and I expect him to largely control rounds when he’s given a striking matchup.

So what’s the breakdown from the other side of the cage? Vera has never carried a fighting style that I love, though he’s continually proven me wrong by coming from behind and beating a ton of quality opponents.

His striking metrics won’t compare to O’Malley’s, as he lands 4.37 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.16 per minute with a 51 percent defensive rate. He consistently gets hit more than he can hit opponents, which is never a great thing for a striking-based fighter.

However, Vera has elite cardio and durability, and he’s never been finished in any of his 32 pro fights. Now that he has the opportunity to compete in five-round matchups, that cardio and durability may come even more into play because it gives him a longer leash to come from behind.

Just like in any Vera matchup, it is quite possible that he loses the first couple of rounds but starts to pick up his pace late, damages O’Malley and finds a way to score another knockout.

It’s not an outcome I can predict, though. Vera simply starts too slow too often, and O’Malley’s elite distance metrics tell me Vera may have a tough time consistently landing on him. Neither fighter projects to wrestle much, and I largely expect the fight to be neutralized there.

I have to favor O’Malley to lead the dance at distance and outstrike Vera over five rounds, probably taking a semi-competitive decision.

On BetMGM, O’Malley is priced up to -275, which puts him out of play for me as a pure moneyline option. However, I do think there’s value in this fight to go the distance, considering O’Malley’s strong cardio and Vera’s strong durability. O’Malley is only priced at +100 or better to win by decision around the industry, which feels like the most likely outcome in this fight. I don’t even mind taking a chance on a -130 go the distance line if you feel the fight may be competitive.

Of course, we always face the chance that either side lands a big strike that ends the fight. But O’Malley doesn’t absorb head strikes often, and Vera rarely takes damage, so my best guess is that we see an extended matchup here.

Robelis Despaigne vs. Josh Parisian

I have to talk about this matchup between Robelis Despaigne and Josh Parisian because it’s a hilarious fight and one that could present a betting opportunity on both sides.

Despaigne will make his UFC debut on Saturday at 4-0 professionally, with all four wins coming by knockout. He’s 35 years old and won the bronze medal in taekwondo at the London Olympics in 2020.

Each of his four MMA wins has been utter destruction. None of his last three fights have lasted longer than 12 seconds, with his two most recent wins coming in less than five seconds. Despaigne is literally out there fighting absolute cans, landing one big strike immediately after the fight starts and watching his opponent fall to the canvas. That is the honest truth.

And now the UFC has matched him up with Josh Parisian, a bottom-of-the-pack, old, slow, and non-athletic heavyweight — a perfect recipe for getting Despaigne another quick KO win.

The problem for me is that taekwondo is a terrible base for MMA. Despaigne will stand with his hands at his waist and hunt for one big head kick. We have no idea what his striking volume might look like over 15 minutes, let alone if he has the cardio to fight that long.

We also have no idea what his grappling game looks like, and generally speaking, a 35-year-old taekwondo specialist is not high up on my list as the type to enter the UFC with strong defensive wrestling skills.

Parisian may not be able to match Despaigne’s athleticism, but he certainly has more MMA experience. He’s gone three rounds in the UFC before and topped 100 significant strikes. He lands about one takedown per fight and has a competent offensive ground game.

It’s quite possible that if Despaigne doesn’t knock Parisian out in 30 seconds, he won’t win this fight at all.

On BetMGM, Despaigne is priced up to -350, which feels way too high for me, considering the unknowns. If you’re considering a bet on Despaigne, I’d much rather bet him to win by knockout or first-round knockout to get the price down.

Parisian might also have value as the +250 underdog, though, of course, there’s a major risk that he’ll get hurt quickly. He does have the better cardio, volume striking and grappling on paper, and if he survives, he could look like the favorite in hindsight.

Maryna Moroz vs. Joanne Wood

We have another rematch scheduled this weekend for the preliminary opener, which will feature Maryna Moroz and Joanne Wood, who may be entering the final fight of her UFC career.

These two last competed in Moroz’s debut in 2015, where Moroz pulled guard and locked up an armbar in less than two minutes. Given that outcome and some recent success, Moroz is a pretty heavy favorite here at -225 on BetMGM. 

First, I’ll try to make the ugly case for Wood being a value. It simply comes down to her willingness to throw strikes in volume. As a muay-thai striker, Wood constantly attacks with kicks, and she currently lands 6.93 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.72 per minute at a 51 percent defensive rate. She isn’t the most impactful striker, but her volume consistency has been her best attribute throughout her career, and she’s coming off another performance against Luana Carolina in which she landed 130 significant strikes over 15 minutes.

The downside, I suppose, is that Wood isn’t defensively sound in any area. She can be hit hard and taken down. Her mental game has also needed a lot of work throughout her career. Now, at age 38, in a potential retirement fight, there’s no reason to be confident in Wood.

But is there a reason to be confident in Moroz? Moroz is a base boxer, but she hasn’t controlled many fights at the UFC level. She only lands 4.15 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.42 per minute with a 53 percent defensive rate. I do think she’s more physical than Wood and might be able to land the more impactful strikes, but over 15 minutes, it doesn’t seem likely Moroz will easily outpace Wood. In fact, I would have to favor Wood to land the more consistent volume, and the most likely outcome feels like a competitive decision.

Moroz may still have the advantage on the ground, where she already submitted Wood once. Moroz has wrestled with some success recently too, but still only averages 0.67 takedowns per 15 minutes. Plus, she just stuck her head into a guillotine choke against Karine Silva, and I definitely wouldn’t consider Moroz to be a dominant wrestler or grappler. Moroz also defends takedowns at 45 percent, so I wouldn’t be shocked if Wood took her down again, though I can’t project much control if she does.

In total, there are some questions with Wood at this stage of her career and I don’t see her winning by any other method than a competitive decision, but that also feels like the most likely outcome of this fight.

As a +190 underdog, I don’t think Wood is a terrible option. I would also consider backing all the distance lines like Wood to win by decision at +325, Moroz to win by decision at -105, or the fight itself to go the distance at -275.

Wood is always live for an implosion, but Moroz hasn’t proven enough as a grappler for me to be confident she can easily control Wood and find a submission.