UFC betting: How to attack Tom Aspinall-Marcin Tybura main event [Video]

Some of the UFC’s greatest fighters — including Georges St-Pierre, Conor McGregor and Dominick Cruz — have overcome serious knee injuries in their championship pursuits. Heavyweight Tom Aspinall is on a mission to add his name to the list. Last July against Curtis Blaydes, Aspinall suffered a nasty knee injury 15 seconds into the biggest fight of his career. The injury ended the fight, snapping his eight-fight winning streak and halting the Englishman’s surge toward a title shot.

Aspinall returns Saturday to the O2 Arena to face Marcin Tybura as a -500 favorite. It’s clear the promotion is easing the UK’s most promising contender back into action, but the wide odds make it a difficult fight for bettors to find value. Laying -500 with a fighter coming off major knee surgery is a tough bet to make, even though Aspinall is the clear side in the contest.

What’s the best way to cash in on his expected dominance in the main event? I will share how I’m betting on a big win in Aspinall’s return and analyze some of the available props that should be on your radar.

Tom Aspinall (-500) vs. Marcin Tybura (+360)

When people talk about who could possibly dethrone Jon Jones, there is a reason Aspinall’s name comes up. His elite combination of striking and grappling is rare in a division where most fighters possess a singular path to victory. Aspinall has big power, throws solid leg kicks and a devastating right cross, plus effectively gets takedowns to utilize his grappling when advantageous. He is dangerous from everywhere and does an excellent job tailoring his approach to exploit his opponent’s weaknesses. Out of his five UFC wins, three have come by KO/TKO and two by submission.

The biggest knock on the fifth-ranked Aspinall is that he has yet to truly be tested. That’s not likely to happen in Saturday’s clash with Tybura. Four of Aspinall’s five UFC wins came in the first round, and the only opponent to survive Round 1 (Andrei Arlovski) was finished off in a little over a minute later. The odds for Aspinall to win inside the distance are identical to his moneyline price (-500), forcing bettors to get more precise with their wagers on the exact outcome of Saturday’s main event.

This is a massive step up for Tybura (11-6 UFC), who enters the bout on a two-fight winning streak against a much lower level of competition. He is on a 7-1 run, but his most recent opponent, Blagoy Ivanov, was recently cut from the promotion. Tybura is in a whole different world with Aspinall, and that’s a major factor in why I expect this to end early. Tybura’s win condition typically revolves around him taking some damage early on and working in his wrestling to gain control of the fight. His meager +0.24 striking differential demonstrates how part of his success is predicated on his ability to absorb his opponent’s strikes.

He is not surviving Aspinall’s onslaught. Aspinall averages 7.41 significant strikes per minute and leads all ranked fighters across every division with a +4.54 striking differential. Add in the fact that Aspinall is the advantage grappler, and there isn’t much data that points to this one going past the first round. Tybura has previously been knocked out by Derrick Lewis and Augusto Sakai, so I’m confident he will crumble when Aspinall inevitably swarms him with strikes.

There are a few different ways we can attack the method of victory props. Here are the three options at BetMGM that are a reasonable alternative to laying -500 on the moneyline:

• Tom Aspinall by KO/TKO or DQ (-165)

• Tom Aspinall to win in Round 1 (-115)

• Tom Aspinall by KO/TKO in Rd 1 (+100)

If I had to make a bet on how Aspinall finishes his opponent, it’s much more probable that it’s by strikes than submission. It might be tempting to pay the extra fifteen cents (-115) for Aspinall to win in Round 1 to cover the chance of a submission, but it’s not worth it considering the historical data. Tybura has never been submitted in 31 career fights spanning over 11 years and has held his own against elite brazilian jiu-jitsu specialists like Fabricio Werdum.

The key question for bettors is whether they are more confident in Aspinall winning in Round 1 or winning by knockout. It’s an easy decision for me, but your answer shapes the prop that gives you the best value. It’s hard to handicap how Aspinall feels in the Octagon after a major surgery. If that’s a concern, betting Aspinall at -165 to win by KO/TKO is a solid wager. I’m a believer that it’s in Aspinall’s DNA to be aggressive, and rather feeling out his opponent, he will want to pass the test as quickly as possible.

My money is on Tom Aspinall to win by KO/TKO in Round 1. He has great movement for a heavyweight and should be able to have a ton of success exploiting holes in Tybura’s striking defense. He has the power and explosiveness to turn Tybura’s lights out in devastating fashion. The crowd at the O2 Arena will be going absolutely insane, skyrocketing his adrenaline and fueling the heavyweight to give it exactly what it came to see. I will also be betting .20 of a unit on Tom Aspinall to win by KO/TKO in Round 2 as a small hedge at +500 to safeguard against any type of feeling-out process.

Best bet: Tom Aspinall to win by KO/TKO in Round 1 (+100)

Stats provided by ufcstats.com, Richard Mann