UFC Fight Night 224: Aspinall vs Tybura Fight Prediction & Picks

bettingnews.com

18 July 2023

The O2 Arena in London, England is set to host UFC Fight Night 224 on Saturday, July 22. It’s going to be a night featuring a card filled with something for everyone, including the hard-hitting heavyweight main event between England’s Tom Aspinall and former M-1 Heavyweight Champion Marcin Tybura.

There’s a lot riding on the line when it comes to this matchup. After all, it marks almost one year to the day that Aspinall last fought before being sidelined for a year with a knee injury. Meanwhile, this weekend’s collision is also Tybura’s first main event showdown in nearly six years. If he wants to prove that he deserves a title shot in the future, he needs to make an impact Saturday.

Betting News has put together an Aspinall vs. Tybura preview, ranging from each fighter’s history to the latest betting odds (via BetOnline) and best bets for the UFC Fight Night 224 main event.

Aspinall vs Tybura Tale of the Tape

Tom Aspinall — Marcin Tybura

Record: 12-3 — 24-7
Height: 6’5” — 6’3”
Reach: 69” — 66”
Weight: 256lbs — 249lbs
Age: 30 — 37
Fighting Stance: Orthodox — Orthodox
Knockouts: 9 — 9

UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs Tybura Odds (as of Tuesday, July 11 at 8:35 a.m.)

Moneyline

Tom Aspinall -400
Marcin Tybura +300

Will the Fight Go the Distance?

Round Total

Over 1.5 Rounds (+150)
Under 1.5 Rounds (-180)

Aspinall vs Tybura Fighter History

There’s no question about it: Aspinall is the clear favorite ahead of the UFC Fight Night 224 marquee matchup. He’s available at -400 moneyline odds on BetOnline, which carries an implied win probability of 80.0%.

Having said that, it’s worth pointing out that Aspinall sat at -550 odds Monday night, leaving time to tell how they’ll continue to shift as the week goes on.

Nevertheless, the last time Aspinall stepped foot into a UFC cage was on July 23, 2022. Funny enough, that fight also took place at the O2 Arena. He was set to go to war with Curtis Blaydes in the main event of UFC on ESPN+ 66 but only lasted 15 seconds before his knee gave out following a kick.

Fast forward one year later and Aspinall hopes to get back to where he was before that loss. After all, the English heavyweight was dominating the division, finishing five consecutive opponents to begin his run while earning ‘performer of the night’ honors four times.

At the same time, Tybura has also been making a name for himself in the division. After a 1-4 record over a two-year span, “Tybur” has now won seven of his last eight fights since February 2020.

Five of Tybura’s last seven victories came by some form of decision while the other two stem from knockout wins over former NFLer Greg Hardy and Walt Harris. He most recently took on Blagoy Ivanov in February, winning by unanimous decision after three rounds.

As impressive as Tybura has been, Aspinall has him beaten in multiple areas. The Englishman lands more significant strikes per minute (7.41 vs. 3.55) with better accuracy (65% vs. 48%) while also having the edge in the grappling department, too, averaging 4.0 takedowns (with 100% accuracy) and 2.0 submissions per 15 minutes.

Additionally, Aspinall is also two inches taller and weighs seven pounds more. It isn’t a huge difference, but it’s worth noting. Even with the odds stacked against him, if Tybura can win, there’s no doubt that this would be the biggest victory of his career.

UFC Fight Night 224 Betting Trends and Markets for Aspinall vs Tybura

The UFC Fight Night 224 main event’s odds are lopsided, meaning there’s really only value if you’re taking a Tybura upset. Fortunately, BetOnline has a variety of markets that bring even more options and value to the table.

Fans hoping for a lengthy battle might be disappointed. After all, BetOnline favors that this fight won’t go the distance at -1000 odds. Furthermore, the sportsbook is also siding with the under on the round total, favoring that the fight will last fewer than 1.5 rounds at -180 odds.

With that in mind, Aspinall winning by KO/TKO (-150) is the favored method of victory. The veteran brawler notched nine of his 12 previous wins by knockout and has knocked out six of his last nine opponents. It also helps that Tybura has been knocked out four times before.

Speaking of which, Tybura’s top victory method is winning by KO/TKO at +550. Although he also has nine KO/TKO victories to his name, Tybura only has two knockout wins in his last 14 fights and hasn’t finished an opponent since June 2021.

If you’re looking to get even more exact regarding a finish, BetOnline has you covered. Aspinall is favored to win by first-round knockout at +200. It isn’t too surprising given that each of the 30-year-old’s nine KO/TKO wins occurred in the opening frame.

UFC Fight Night 224: Aspinall vs Tybura Fight Prediction

Even though a year between fights isn’t a short period of time, I’m taking Aspinall to return to his winning ways. Tybura has built up some nice momentum, but he hasn’t exactly been beating notable opponents. Aspinall will be his toughest foe to date. The Englishman will be motivated in front of a hometown crowd in his return and with how dominant he was in the past, I see Aspinall having zero issue returning to form.

As for the best main event bet, I’m taking Aspinall to win by KO/TKO in Round 1 at +200 odds. His striking numbers are better across the board than Tybura, who’s been knocked out four times — including once in the first round.

Aspinall’s barrage will eventually be too overwhelming before finishing Tybura off with a perfectly timed blow.