UFC Fight Night 224 London predictions: Tom Aspinall or Marcin Tybura?
The UFC is back in London this week for the second time in 2023 with an English heavyweight contender at the top of the lineup in a return from injury.
UFC Fight Night 224 takes place Saturday at The O2 in London. The event streams on ESPN+.
Get pick results from our 11 editors, writers, radio hosts and videographers, as well as additional analysis, below. (Additionally, the UFC Fight Night 224 staff picks grid is available in PDF form.)
Josh Culibao vs. Lerone Murphy
Records: Josh Culibao (11-1-1 MMA, 3-1-1 UFC), Lerone Murphy (12-0-1 MMA, 4-0-1 UFC)
Division: Featherweight
Betting odds: Murphy -140, Culibao +120
Junkie pick results: Murphy 10, Culibao 1
Odds and ends: After a draw in his promotional debut, England’s Murphy has four straight wins in the UFC, including a bonus-winning stoppage. It’s his second straight fight in London after fighting in Abu Dhabi the first four bouts in his UFC tenure.
Jai Herbert vs. Fares Ziam
Records: Jai Herbert (12-4-1 MMA, 2-3-1 UFC), Fares Ziam (13-4 MMA, 3-2 UFC)
Division: Lightweight
Betting odds: Ziam -165, Herbert +140
Junkie pick results: Ziam 6, Herbert 5
Odds and ends: England’s Herbert is a slight underdog who will be trying to get the bad taste of a draw out of his mouth. In March in London, he lost a point for groin strikes and wound up with a draw with Ludovit Klein instead of a win. Ziam, from France, has never fought in England.
Paul Craig vs. Andre Muniz
Records: Paul Craig (16-6-1 MMA, 8-6-1 UFC), Andre Muniz (23-5 MMA, 5-1 UFC)
Division: Middleweight
Betting odds: Muniz -215, Craig +185
Junkie pick results: Muniz 8, Craig 3
Odds and ends: Craig has an impressive seven career post-fight bonus awards in the UFC, six of which have come for submissions. But if he pulls off another one, it’ll have to be in an upset in his first trip to middleweight after spending his career at 205 pounds.
Andre Fili vs. Nathaniel Wood
Records: Andre Fili (22-9 MMA, 10-8 UFC), Nathaniel Wood (19-5 MMA, 6-2 UFC)
Division: Featherweight
Betting odds: Wood -205, Fili +175
Junkie pick results: Wood 9, Fili 2
Odds and ends: England’s Wood was supposed to fight Lerone Murphy in March in London, but a freak injury took him out of the fight. Now he’ll try to stay on track for a possible fight with his new rival when he takes on the long-tenured Fili.
Molly McCann vs. Julija Stoliarenko
Records: Molly McCann (13-5 MMA, 6-4 UFC), Julija Stoliarenko (10-7-1 MMA, 1-5 UFC)
Division: Women’s flyweight
Betting odds: McCann -210, Stoliarenko +180
Junkie pick results: McCann 10, Stoliarenko 1
Odds and ends: McCann knows this London stage well. Both her fights at The O2 in 2022 resulted in knockout wins – and post-fight bonus awards. This time, she’ll be trying to bounce back from a submission loss to title contender Erin Blanchfield in New York. It’s her first fight in eight months.
Tom Aspinall vs. Marcin Tybura
Records: Tom Aspinall (12-3 MMA, 5-1 UFC), Marcin Tybura (24-7 MMA, 11-6 UFC)
Division: Heavyweight
Betting odds: Aspinall -475, Tybura +350
Junkie pick results: Aspinall 10, Tybura 1
Odds and ends: A year ago, Aspinall was on the canvas with a blown-out knee just 15 seconds into his main event in London against Curtis Blaydes. Now he’s recovered and nearly is a 5-1 favorite against Tybura. Only one of our pickers is taking Tybura, who has won seven of eight, in what would be a big upset – and another stunner in front of Aspinall’s home fans.
Preliminary card picks
Although fights on the prelims don’t count toward the standings in the MMA Junkie staff picks, we still pick each fight. Here are some key results:
With one exception, most of our prelim picks were all over the map this event. Danny Roberts (18-7 MMA, 7-6 UFC) is a near-unanimous pick against newcomer Jonny Parsons (8-3 MMA, 0-0 UFC), but had to settle for a 10-1 rout.
Joel Alvarez (19-3 MMA, 4-2 UFC) has an 8-3 lead over Marc Diakiese (16-6 MMA, 7-6 UFC), Ketlen Vieira (13-3 MMA, 7-3 UFC) is 8-3 over Pannie Kianzad (16-6 MMA, 5-3 UFC), and Irish newcomer Shauna Bannon (5-0 MMA, 0-0 UFC) is 8-3 over Bruna Brasil (8-3-1 MMA, 0-1 UFC).
Things were close everywhere else.
Davey Grant 6, Daniel Marcos 5
Mick Parkin 6, Jamal Pogues 5
Makhmud Muradov 7, Bryan Barberena 4
Yanal Ashmouz 6, Chris Duncan 5
Jafel Filho 6, Daniel Barez 5
