UFC Fight Night: Lerone Murphy vs Josh Culibao Picks and Predictions

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20 July 2023

UFC Fight Night: Lerone Murphy vs Josh Culibao Picks and Predictions

UFC Fight Night odds are calling for a close fight between the favored Lerone Murphy (-140) and underdog Josh Culibao (+120). Read our UFC betting picks below to see which way we're leaning.

Lerone Murphy and Josh Culibao are moving closer towards getting ranked at featherweight, and these two prospects are in a must-win situation as they collide this weekend on the UFC Fight Night undercard this Saturday, July 22, from The O2 Arena in London.

UFC odds favor birthday boy and hometown favorite Murphy at -140. Culibao, a formidable opponent, is nipping at his heels as a +120 underdog. These two strikers are set to put on a strong show, and it’s anyone’s fight.

Let’s see who wins Murphy vs. Culibao and UFC Fight Night in London.

Murphy vs Culibao fight odds

Murphy vs Culibao method of victory odds

Murphy vs Culibao picks

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Murphy vs Culibao betting preview

“The Miracle” is coming home and will have an opponent with the right kind of style for him to impress on. There is a lot to like when it comes to Murphy’s potential, though he still has some holes in his game. The dynamic striker can rest easy, knowing that he’s taking on a more favorable matchup than his last few opponents.

Murphy has been taken down 10 times in his last two fights, but he’s facing a striker in Culibao. Regarding striking, Murphy lands 3.58 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.64 in return. He's a switch hitter who works his opponents over to the head and body and keeps excellent spacing thanks to his solid footwork.

Culibao is going to try and overwhelm Murphy with activity. What Murphy has to do is be first, then retreat to countering range when the two engage. Because Culibao tends to get reckless with his offense, Murphy can quickly seize any lost momentum by inching in and out of the pocket, and waiting for him to throw shots out of position.

If Murphy is going to make it in the deep featherweight division, then he’ll need to impress against the tough Culibao. Culibao’s excellent power, chin, and resilience might be enough to shock Murphy in front of his home crowd. Since dropping his UFC debut as a short-notice opponent for Jalin Turner, he's dropped down to featherweight and has gone 3-0-1 in that stretch.

Though he lands 2.96 strikes per minute and absorbs 3.13 in return, he takes more risks and launches a more varied attack than his opponent.

Culibao is an honest striker, but he might want to take a chance at getting Murphy to the mat. He’ll also need to be mindful of Murphy’s boxing abilities, especially as he is going to initiate the majority of the exchanges, attacking from angles to avoid a nasty counter shot.

This might be a homecoming fight and a birthday present for Murphy, but Culibao has all the tools he needs to humble him.

Murphy vs Culibao tale of the tape

Murphy vs Culibao UFC prediction and best bet

Fight prediction: Lerone Murphy ML

Murphy holds the advantages in every major category and should have no trouble winning this one. The way to beat Murphy is to wrestle him and exploit his takedown defense, and not to play directly to his strengths by trying to outstrike him.

Expect Murphy to deliver a big win in front of a raucous home crowd.

Prediction: Lerone Murphy moneyline (-140 at DraftKings)