UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs Drew Dober Prediction

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31 January 2024

UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs Drew Dober Prediction

After a weekend off, UFC Fight Night is back this weekend from Las Vegas with a card full of interesting matchups to watch and bet on. Arguably the most interesting upcoming UFC fight is this top-15 lightweight bout between Renato Moicano and Drew Dober in the co-main event slot.

Moicano vs. Dober Parlay

Pick: Dober +125.

Continue reading for a closer look at this matchup and the official Moicano vs Dober prediction ahead of this weekend.

Moicano vs. Dober Information

Renato Moicano vs Drew Dober

Location of the game: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

Date & Time: February 03, 2024. 7 PM ET main card start

How to Watch: ESPN+

Last Fight Record

Moicano is making his first appearance since beating Brad Riddell in December 2022.

Dober is coming off a first-round TKO victory over Ricky Glenn last October.

Moicano vs. Dober Betting Analysis

Renato Moicano

Moicano is a Brazilian mixed martial artist with a 17-5-1 professional MMA record, including zero TKO/KO wins and 10 submissions. Before being the current #13 ranked UFC lightweight, Moicano won the interim Jungle Fight featherweight title and has two post-fight bonuses in the UFC. He also won the ESPN award for Best On-The-Mic Moment of 2022 at UFC 281.

Moicano is a 5’11” orthodox fighter with a 72” reach at the age of 34. In the octagon, he averages 4.75 significant strikes landed and 4.07 absorbed per minute. He has a very solid 60% striking defense and 74% takedown defense. The submission specialist also averages 1.66 takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC.

Drew Dober

Dober is an American professional mixed martial artist with a record of 27-12 and has 14 wins by TKO/KO and 6 by submission. He has 7 post-fight bonuses in the company and owns the record for most KOs in the lightweight division’s history at 9 total.

Dober is a 5’8” southpaw with a 70” reach at 35 years old. He averages 4.58 significant strikes landed per minute while absorbing 4.46. As primarily a striker, he averages about 0.68 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a 56% takedown defense.

Updates

No injuries have been reported to the UFC or ESPN.

Moicano vs. Dober Betting Preview

The Moicano vs. Dober prediction can’t be made until we preview both fighters’ betting lines and styles. When two athletes at this level get locked into a cage for a fight, the styles are what make or break a fighter’s outcome.

With the available UFC fight odds, Moicano is coming into fight week as the -145 betting favorite over the +125 Dober. BetUS sportsbook has set the over/under at 1.5 rounds. Keep your eye on sportsbooks this week for shifts in the line and for more prop bets being released.

Stylistically, this fight has the potential to be Fight of the Night and be talked about for weeks to come. Dober always brings the fight to his opponents and Moicano has brought a lot of excitement to the octagon in his last couple of performances.

On the technical side of things, Moicano is very slick and disciplined in the octagon. He has a game plan and sticks to it for 15 minutes. He’s patient and does very well mixing up points of attack, chopping opponents down with inside leg kicks timed perfectly before working his way up to the head.

Dober is a brawler, but he does it at a high level. He has a great chin, great cardio, and a lot of power in both hands. He knows that if he can take a punch from Moicano, he can land with twice the power of the Brazilian in return.

Moicano vs. Dober Best Bets and Predictions

Making UFC picks at this level of competition is challenging because MMA considers all these fights as 50/50. Either of these two men can win on Saturday night.

After carefully breaking down this matchup on a technical level, the official Moicano vs. Dober prediction is that the fight will end inside the distance. A prop bet for that will be a great pick to make.

For who exactly will win this fight, we are going with Dober because of his one-punch KO power, the long layoff for Moicano, and the underdog odds for Dober.