UFC 293: Israel Adesanya vs. Sean Strickland odds, picks & predictions

In a 5-round middleweight championship bout in the main event, Israel Adesanya and Sean Strickland meet at UFC 293 on Saturday at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

Records: Adesanya (24-2-0) | Strickland (27-5-0)

The early prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ at 6:30 p.m. ET, and the prelims can be viewed on ESPNews/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View

Adesanya, a.k.a. “The Last Stylebender”, reclaimed his belt at UFC 287 in April with a 2nd-round KO/TKO win over Alex Pereira after getting knocked out by Pereira in the 5th round at UFC 281 in November 2022.

It was rare for him to have back-to-back fights finish inside the distance, as his previous 4 fights had been unanimous decisions. It was the first time since arriving at the UFC level that Stylebender failed to go the distance in consecutive bouts.

Strickland is coming off a 2nd-round KO/TKO against Abus Magomedov in the main event of a Fight Night event at UFC Apex on July 1. He has consecutive wins since recording back-to-back losses to close out 2022. Strickland has gone the distance in 2 of the past 3 bouts and 5 of his previous 7 fights.

Adesanya has a 4-inch reach advantage, and the switch stance champ lands 53.65% of his significant strikes accuracy percentage to just 43.19% for Strickland. The latter does lead 5.86-to-3.94 in the significant strikes landed per minute department despite not being as accurate.

Strickland will also be keen to get this fight to the canvas, posting a 1.00 takedown average and 64.29% takedown accuracy percentage, while Adesanya barely has blips on either chart.

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UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:48 a.m. ET.

UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland picks and predictions

Adesanya (-650) is a risky play, not only because you need to risk 6 1/2 times your potential return, but because he rarely gets stoppages and must rely on the judges to like the technical aspects so much that he gets the win by decision. As any bettor knows, it’s never a good thing when the judges get to decide your fate.

Looking at the lines, Adesanya by decision normally would be the avenue I’d go. However, instead of declaring a winner, you can simply go with HOW WILL THE FIGHT FINISH? DECISION (+120) for the fight finish, and you win whether Adesanya or Strickland wins on points. Instead of narrowing your chances by taking the camp, it’s just a small price to pay to double the potential win.

OVER 3.5 ROUNDS (-140) is worth a look if you want a little bit of wiggle room in the event of a late 4th-round finish or a knockout or submission in the 5th round.

Playing OVER 4.5 ROUNDS (+100) is even money and worth a look if you’re dead set on a 5th round finish in the final 90 seconds of the bout. For me, playing the decision is the much better play in this title fight.