UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs Tybura Odds, Picks & Predictions

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14 March 2024

UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs Tybura Odds, Picks & Predictions

Heavyweights take the stage Saturday night when Tai Tuivasa and Marcin Tybura meet in the octagon, and with both fighters possessing knockout power, our UFC picks don't expect this fight to reach the distance.

Tai Tuivasa vs. Marcin Tybura is the main event for UFC Fight Night betting this Saturday from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

It's a showdown between a pair of Top-10 heavyweights and should be a very competitive bout. UFC odds opened with Tuivasa as a slim -125 favorite with Tybura coming back at +105.

Here are my best free picks and predictions for UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura on Saturday, March 16.

Tai Tuivasa vs Marcin Tybura fight odds

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Tuivasa vs Tybura picks

Fight prediction: Tai Tuivasa

If Marcin Tybura can get his grappling going he could grind out a victory. However, he has a takedown percentage of just 33% so he can't always implement that wrestling.

Even if Tybura does take Tuivasa to the mat, he doesn't hunt for submissions and has just two finishes in his last nine wins. Lying on top won't win him the fight, and the longer this goes the more striking exchanges he'll be forced to engage in.

I don't see him standing up long against a power puncher like Tuivasa who has scary power in his hands, a solid chin, and surprising quickness for a man of his size. Tybura also likes to use the clinch and that's another range where Tuivasa is extremely dangerous with his knees and elbows.

Tyubra doesn't have the footwork, reach, or kicking ability to work at distance, and Tuivasa has the striking advantage at every other range. Don't be scared off by Tuivasa's recent three-fight losing streak since those defeats came against some of the top fighters in this division. Back him to get back on track by beating Tybura here.

Prediction: Tuivasa moneyline (-125 at Bet99)

Fight best bet: Tuivasa by KO/TKO

Tuivasa has struggled against more technical heavyweights that can avoid his power, but he's shown the ability to put to sleep those who stand flat-footed in front of him.

The 38-year-old Tybura is a plodder with poor lateral movement, and with 32 career fights under his belt, he has plenty of tread on his tires. Tuivasa is a knockout specialist with 13 of 14 career wins and each of his last five victories in the octagon coming by KO/TKO.

Meanwhile, Tybura has been caught by opponents with one-touch power before. Not only is he coming off a first-round knockout loss at the hands of Tom Aspinall, he has also been starched by Augusto Sakai, Shamil Abdurakhimov, and Derrick Lewis.

Pick: Tuivasa by KO/TKO (+100 at Bet99)

Tuivasa vs Tybura betting preview

Tai Tuivasa is on a three-fight skid and in his most recent bout he was submitted in the second-round by Alexander Volkov — a guy not exactly known for his ground game. Before his current losing streak, Tuivasa reeled off five straight wins in the octagon with each of those victories coming by KO/TKO before the midway point of Round 2.

Tuivasa is a crowd favorite for his willingness to brawl and his penchant for chugging a beer out of a shoe after his exciting knockout wins. The 31-year-old is vulnerable on the mat and has poor striking defense, but his power is a game-changer. He also has solid technical boxing ability and likes to use leg kicks to set up his combinations.

Marcin Tybura is 2-2 in his last four fights and is fresh off a first round knockout loss to Tom Aspinall last summer.

The former M-1 heavyweight champion, Tybura has been competing in the UFC since 2016 and has racked up an 11-7 record in the promotion. Tybura does his best work in the clinch and on the mat where he can use his wrestling to grind down his opponents.