UFC on ESPN 45: Caceres vs. Pineda odds, picks and predictions

In a featherweight bout on the main card, Alex Caceres and Daniel Pineda meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 45 — also known as UFC Vegas 74 — at UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 45: Caceres vs. Pineda odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN+ at 6 p.m. ET, with the main card on ESPN/ESPN+ at 9 p.m. ET.

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Caceres got back on track with a 1st-round KO/TKO of Julian Erosa in December after suffering a unanimous decision setback against Sodiq Yusuff in mid-March 2022. “Bruce Leeroy” is now 6-1 across his last 7 bouts, including 3 unanimous-decision wins, the KO/TKO victory and a pair of submission wins.

Pineda has had an interesting recent history. Since arriving at the UFC level, he has a pair of stoppage wins, a KO/TKO loss to Cub Swanson and a No Contest against Andre Fili. The title winner from Fury FC back in 2018, Pineda hasn’t gone the distance in any of his 4 UFC bouts.

UFC on ESPN 45: Caceres vs. Pineda odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:34 a.m. ET.

UFC on ESPN 45: Caceres vs. Pineda picks and predictions

Records: Caceres (20-13-0) | Pineda (28-14-0)

CACERES (-175) on the 2-way line is the safe play, as the veteran takes on a relative UFC newcomer that’s had a roller coaster start to his career with the company.

The favorite has managed finishes in 3 of his past 5 fights, with a KO/TKO win and a pair of submission victories.

CACERES BY KO/TKO OR DQ (+250) on the 7-way Method of Victory line is worth a roll of the dice for a chance to multiply your initial wager by 2 1/2 times.

If you don’t want to declare a winner, but still want action on the fight, taking KO/TKO/DQ (+175) for the method of victory, regardless of who gets their hand raised, is also a solid wager.

NO (-175): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE? is a little on the steep side, but it’s worth a play. I believe Bruce Leeroy gets the knockout victory. In addition, Caceres knocked out Erosa in Round 1 last time out, and 2 of his 3 KO/TKO results at the UFC level came in the first 3-plus minutes.

As a result, I like UNDER 1.5 ROUND (+145) at plus money for a solid value.