UFC Fight Night 224: Shahbazyan vs. Hernandez odds, picks & prediction

In a middleweight bout on the main card, Edmen Shahbazyan and Anthony Hernandez meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 224 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 224: Shahbazyan vs. Hernandez odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN+ at 4 p.m. ET, with the main card on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.

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Shahbazyan halted a 3-bout losing streak last time out with a 2nd-round KO/TKO win over Dalcha Lungiambula at UFC 282 in December. He had been knocked out in 2 of those 3 losses while suffering a unanimous-decision defeat against Jack Hermansson in the one fight that went the distance.

“The Golden Boy” has had 4 of his past 5 fights end in KO/TKO, with 2 wins and 2 losses across the stretch. Just that fight against Hermansson has gone the distance in 7 contests since joining the UFC.

Hernandez heads to the octagon with a 3-fight win streak in tow with 2 submission victories. He posted a 3rd-round submission victory over Marc-Andre Barriault in mid-September last time out.

Four of 6 fights have ended up via submission (3-1) for “Fluffy” since he arrived at the UFC level in Feb. 2019, while a 5th fight ended with a KO/TKO loss to Kevin Holland in May 2020. His lone fight to go the distance was a unanimous-decision victory over Josh Fremd at UFC 273 in April 2022.

UFC Fight Night 224: Shahbazyan vs. Hernandez odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:44 a.m. ET.

UFC Fight Night 224: Shahbazyan vs. Hernandez picks and predictions

Records: Shahbazyan (12-3-0) | Hernandez (10-2-0)

Hernandez (-210) will cost you over 2 times your potential return if you want to play the favorite on the 2-way line. That’s not a recommended play, so AVOID.

Instead, HERNANDEZ BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+100) at even money is a much better bet on the Method of Victory 5-way line. You’ll be a winner there as long as Hernandez wins by any method other than decision.

No (-210): Fight to go the distance? is way too expensive, costing you more than 2 times your potential return. That’s too risky, and not a good long-term betting strategy playing such heavy favorites.

HERNANDEZ IN ROUND 2 (+450) and HERNANDEZ IN ROUND 3 (+900). If he wins in one of those rounds, you will lose one end, but you’ll still be quite a bit in the black.