UFC on ESPN 45: Elliott vs. Altamirano odds, picks and predictions

In a flyweight bout on the main card, Tim Elliott and Victor Altamirano meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 45 — also known as UFC Vegas 74 — at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 45: Elliott vs. Altamirano odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN+ at 6 p.m. ET, with the main card on ESPN/ESPN+ at 9 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Elliott takes the walk to the octagon looking to build off of his unanimous decision win at UFC 272 against Tagir Ulanbekov in March 2022. It was a solid win after his unanimous decision setback against Matheus Nicolau in Oct. 2021 in his previous bout. He has gone the distance in each of his last 4 outings.

Altamirano has registered consecutive wins against Daniel Lacerda in March and Vinicius Salvador in August 2022. It has been a nice bounce back after El Magnifico’s split-decision setback against Carlos Hernandez in his UFC debut in late Feb. 2022. He’s gone the distance in 4 of his last 5 pro bouts.

UFC on ESPN 45: Elliott vs. Altamirano odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:02 a.m. ET.

UFC on ESPN 45: Elliott vs. Altamirano picks and predictions

Records: Elliott (19-12-1) | Altamirano (12-2-0)

The southpaw Elliott (-185) is a rather heavy favorite despite the fact he’s an inch shorter than his counterpart and has a 4-inch reach disadvantage. Elliott is also 4 years older than his opponent.

The Mexican ALTAMIRANO (+150) has a 6.15 significant strikes landed per minute to just 3.58 for the southpaw Elliott. Altamirano is much more accurate, too, landing his significant strikes at 65.97%, although Elliott is still rather accurate at 59.52%.

This won’t be easy, but the value play is on the underdog.

Will the fight go the distance? Yes (-225) is too expensive, as it will cost you more than 2 times your potential return.

Look instead to the round betting or method of victory, and take ALTAMIRANO ON POINTS (+300) for a chance to triple up if he pulls off the victory after going the distance.

I believe this will be a very close fight, and a split decision or majority decision could be in play. As a result, YES (+375): FIGHT TO BE WON BY SPLIT OR MAJORITY DECISION is worth a small-unit wager.