UFC Vegas 71: Pavlovich vs Blaydes Fight Prediction, Odds & Picks

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19 April 2023

UFC Vegas 71: Pavlovich vs Blaydes Fight Prediction, Odds & Picks

The world’s top mixed martial artist fighters return to the Apex on Saturday, April 22 for UFC Vegas 71. This weekend’s upcoming card in Las Vegas is one that you won’t want to miss, headlined by a massive heavyweight showdown between Sergei Pavlovich (17-1) and Curtis Blaydes (17-3, 1NC).

These two heavy hitters are among the best that the UFC’s heavyweight division has to offer. Pavlovich heads into Las Vegas as the promotion’s No. 3-ranked heavyweight while Blaydes is right behind him at No. 4. Considering how neither man has challenged for the gold before, it’s easy to see how important a victory is.

Unsurprisingly, Pavlovich vs. Blaydes doesn’t bring any shortage of betting opportunities. With so much to take into account, Betting News has gathered the latest UFC Vegas 71 odds from a variety of sportsbooks, as well as a prediction with the best bet you can make this weekend.

Pavlovich vs Blaydes— Tale of the Tape

Sergei Pavlovich — Curtis Blaydes

Record: 17-1 — 17-3, 1NC
Height: 6’3” — 6’4”
Reach: 84” — 80”
Weight: 257lbs — 265lbs
Age: 30 — 32
Fighting Stance: Southpaw — Orthodox
Knockouts: 14 — 12

UFC Vegas 71: Pavlovich vs Blaydes Fight Odds (as of Wednesday, April 19)

Odds are via our top reviewed and recommended sportsbooks.

FanDuel Sportsbook

Sergei Pavlovich +134
Curtis Blaydes -172

Caesars Sportsbook

Sergei Pavlovich +150
Curtis Blaydes -175

BetRivers

Sergei Pavlovich +135
Curtis Blaydes -167

BetMGM

Sergei Pavlovich +140
Curtis Blaydes -165

Pavlovich vs Blaydes Fighter History

Although the odds vary, Blaydes heads into UFC Vegas 71 as the unanimous favorite, as per the four highlighted sportsbooks. He’s available at an average of -170 odds across the four sources, translating to an implied win probability of 63.0%.

Blaydes has been one of the more impressive heavyweights over the last few years. He enters this weekend on a three-fight winning streak, picking up wins over some impressive fighters.

First, Blaydes overcame Jairzinho Rozenstruik by unanimous decision at UFC 266. He followed that up with a second-round TKO victory over Chris Daukaus in the main event of UFC on ESPN 33, earning ‘performance of the night’ honors.

Blaydes didn’t have to do much work in his last outing, though. He tallied a TKO win over Tom Aspinall back in July after the latter injured his knee just 15 seconds into the fight.

Nevertheless, the victory marked the fourth time that Blaydes has won via knockout in his last seven fights.

Having said that, continuing that trend won’t be easy against Pavlovich, who has only lost once in his nine-year MMA career.

After being knocked out by Alistair Overeem in his UFC debut, it’s been nothing but success for the Russian brawler. Pavlovich is currently on a five-fight winning streak, having knocked out each of those opponents.

What’s even more impressive is that those knockout wins occurred within the opening round. In fact, Pavlovich’s latest two opponents — former UFC Heavyweight Championship challenger Derrick Lewis and Tai Tuivasa — couldn’t even last one minute in the octagon before getting finished.

Pavlovich also averages 8.07 significant strikes per minute, whereas Blaydes averages 3.54. At the same time, Blaydes only absorbs 1.70 while boasting 59% striking defense, so it’ll be interesting to see just how many good shots Pavlovich can land.

Pavlovich vs Blaydes Trends at UFC Vegas 71

Pavlovich has an average fight time of 2:15.
Blaydes has an average fight time of 9:37.
Pavlovich is 5-0 in his last five fights.
Blaydes is 7-1 in his last eight fights.
Pavlovich has picked up 82.4% of his victories by KO/TKO.
Blaydes has picked up 70.6% of his victories by KO/TKO.
Pavlovich has been finished once in his career.
Blaydes has been finished three times in his career.

Pavlovich vs Blaydes UFC Vegas 71 Fight Prediction

Pavlovich has been nothing but dominant lately, however, I see his winning ways coming to an end this Saturday. Blaydes has the experience advantage on top of being the more versatile fighter. He averages 6.05 takedowns per 15 minutes with 53% accuracy and after grappling led to Pavlovich’s downfall against Overeem, I like Blaydes’ chances of walking out with the victory.

There aren’t too many betting options at the moment outside of a moneyline. In other words, the best bet for now is to take Pavlovich outright on BetMGM since that’s where his odds (-165) are the shortest.

Keep your eye out for more Pavlovich Blaydes markets as the week goes on. The UFC Vegas 71 main event is one of those fights that could go either way, so I’d also feel comfortable taking a neutral bet, such as the fight ending by KO/TKO regardless of who’s the victor. Unfortunately, that isn’t an option at the time of writing.