UFC 295: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall odds, picks and predictions

In a 5-round heavyweight championship bout in the co-main event, Sergei Pavlovich and Tom Aspinall meet Saturday at UFC 295 at Madison Square Garden. Let's analyze FanDuel Sportsbook's around the UFC 295: Pavlovich vs. Aspinall odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ starting at 6 p.m. ET, while the prelims can be viewed on ESPNews/ESPN+ starting at 8 p.m. ET. The main card begins on Pay-Per-View at 10 p.m. ET.

Records: Pavlovich (18-1-0) | Aspinall (13-3-0)

Pavlovich has been on fire since arriving at the UFC level, posting a 6-1 record in 7 fights. He has won 6 in a row since being knocked out in the 1st round by veteran Alistair Overeem in Nov. 2018. In fact, he has 6 straight knockouts since, all in the 1st round.

Aspinall is no stranger to the knockout, either. He has a win and a loss via the method in the past 2 fights, and since his UFC debut on July 25, 2020, the Englishman is 6-1 in 7 bouts with 4 KO/TKO wins, 1 loss via KO/TKO, and 2 submission victories. He has made it out of the 1st Round just once at the UFC level.

Pavlovich enters the fight with a 6-inch reach advantage, and the southpaw has a slight 8.72-to-7.65 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Aspinall is way more accurate on those strikes, posting a 67.84% mark to just 50.33% for the Russian. Pavlovich doesn't get to the mat, or even attempt takedowns, but Aspinall has a 3.70 takedown average with a 1.85 submission average.

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UFC 295: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall odds

FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:21 p.m. ET.

UFC 295: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall picks and predictions

PAVLOVICH (-104) is the slight underdog in this bout, but he is the play. I like his tremendous reach advantage, and feel that the Russian will be able to push and pull Aspinall (-112) out, picking and choosing the spots to go in for the big blow. It will be hard for the Englishman to get next to the underdog.

As far as the method of victory, if you did not declare a winner, KO/TKO (-290) is the overwhelming favorite. You can't risk that, even though it's a near certainty that's how this fight will end. PAVLOVICH BY KO/TKO (+120) is the play, or Aspinall by KO/TKO (+220) if you want to go on your own and like the slight favorite.

No: Fight to go the distance? (-1600) will cost you 16 times your potential return, and that's just a ridiculous risk for a small return.

The total rounds bet is risky, too. Pavlovich hasn't been out of the 1st round in his UFC career, while Aspinall has been to Round 2 just once, and not past 1.5 rounds at any points. But Under 1.5 Rounds (-215) is still just a little too expensive.

AVOID.

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