Untapable fair odds: Oaks prep shapes up as 2-horse race

The Untapable Stakes on Saturday at Fair Grounds has the looks of an old-fashioned throwdown, with no. 5 Legadema and no. 6 West Omaha evenly matched based on what these fillies did when breaking their maidens in November at Churchill Downs.

Both fillies won in gate-to-wire fashion with Legadema blitzing 5 1/2 furlongs on debut with a 2 1/4-length score and a 92 Horse Racing Nation speed rating. West Omaha went gate-to-wire in her second start, a 7-furlong tilt resulting in a four-length score while earning a 91 HRN speed rating.

So what separates these do at 1 mile, 70 yards? I give the edge to Legadema, as she showed real speed at the shorter distance while still coming home with a fast Brisnet late pace rating as well. Bob Baffert-trained stallions sired both fillies, but Arrogate for Legadema hints at a better stamina influence than West Coast for West Omaha.

Given Legadema is the co second choice but my most likely winner on fair odds (6-5), I see the Phil Bauer trainee as a stone-cold single. Obviously there will not be any surprise if Brad Cox wins this race, either with the aforementioned West Omaha or no. 1 Alpine Princess, but the value looks to be in Legadema's corner.

Because I have both Legadema and West Omaha as such likely winners – 1-5 would be a fair price if they were coupled – that means Alpine Princess at 3-1 morning line is a certain underlay. Her 86 Horse Racing Nation speed rating last out is a clear step below the top two, and her Brisnet pace ratings just do not have her keeping up with either of the likely winners.