Upsets Show NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament May Be Wide Open

Maybe it’s the transfer portal. Perhaps it’s just hard to win conference road games. Whatever the reason, the outcomes of games this week show there’s plenty of parity in men’s college basketball.

On Tuesday night, No. 1 Purdue lost, 88-72, at Nebraska, while No. 2 Houston lost, 57-53, at Iowa State. It was the first time since Feb. 6. 2016 the top two teams in the Associated Press poll lost on the same day to unranked opponents, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

The upsets continued on Wednesday night. No. 3 Kansas lost, 65-60, at the University of Central Florida, while No. 5 Tennessee lost, 77-72, at Mississippi State. UCF and Mississippi State are both unranked.

The only top-five team to avoid a loss this week? No. 4 Connecticut, which defeated unranked Xavier, 80-75, on the road on Wednesday night.

If the Huskies (14-2) defeat lowly Georgetown (8-8) on Sunday, they will likely be ranked first when the next AP poll is released on Monday. UConn hasn’t been atop the AP poll since March 2009.

UConn has won three national titles since it was last No. 1 in the regular season, including last year when it rolled through the NCAA tournament by winning each of its six games by at least 13 games.

This time last year, few expected the Huskies would win the title. From Dec. 31 through Jan. 25, they lost six of eight games and fell to No. 24 in the AP poll. They then won eight of their final nine regular season games before losing, 70-68, to Marquette in the Big East tournament semifinals.

This year, UConn could become the first team to win consecutive NCAA championships since Florida in 2006 and 2007. Back then, the Gators benefited from having players stick around, as the top seven scorers from 2006 returned in 2007, including NBA draft lottery picks Joakim Noah, Corey Brewer and Al Horford.

UConn has not had the same consistency, as it lost its two top scorers from a year ago (Adama Sanogo and Jordan Hawkins) as well as Andre Jackson, who is now a rookie with the Milwaukee Bucks. Still, the Huskies made some important additions, most notably Cam Spencer, a Rutgers transfer who’s averaging a team-high 15.4 points per game, and freshman Stephon Castle, who’s averaging 9.7 points per game and is a projected NBA first round pick.

The Huskies have another likely first round draft selection in center Donovan Clingan, who only played 13.1 minutes per game last year. Clingan is averaging 13.9 points and 6.3 rebounds per game, but he hasn’t played since Dec. 20 when he sustained a right foot injury in a loss at Seton Hall. UConn at the time said Clingan would be out three to four weeks, so he could return sometime this month.

Besides Spencer and Clingan, the other two Huskies averaging in double figures are Tristen Newton (15.2 points, 6.4 rebounds and 6 assists per game) and Alex Karaban (14.8 points and 5.8 rebounds per game), both of whom have seen their roles expand from a year ago.

UConn’s only other loss this season came on Dec. 1 when it fell, 69-65, at Kansas. The Jayhawks, the preseason No. 1 team, then won six consecutive games, although it had some close calls with a 75-71 victory at Indiana on Dec. 16 and an 83-81 victory over TCU last Saturday.

Kansas (13-2) could still be considered among the favorites to win the NCAA title, especially with a Hall of Fame coach in Bill Self and two potential All-Americans in seniors Kevin McCullar (19.8 points, 6.7 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game) and Hunter Dickinson (18.9 points and 11.9 rebounds per game).

Still, analytics gurus are not as sold on Kansas as the voters in the AP poll. The Jayhawks are No. 16 in the NCAA’s NET ranking, No. 19 in Ken Pomeroy’s ranking and No. 22 in Bart Torvik’s ranking.

Those three websites all have the same No. 1 in Houston. The Cougars were the last undefeated team in the nation, winning their first 14 games before losing to Iowa State on Tuesday night. That was not considered a bad loss, however, because it was on the road and the Cyclones are No. 10 according to the NET, No. 15 according to Pomeroy and No. 14 according to Torvik.

Pomeroy projects that Houston will be favored to win its final 16 games, although the Cougars could always slip up in their first year in the Big 12, which Pomeroy has ranked as the top conference for the third consecutive year and ninth time in the past 11 years (it was second in 2020 and 2021).

Purdue (14-2) and Arizona (12-3) are the other teams ranked in the top three of the NET, Pomery and Torvik rankings. The Boilermakers have the reigning national player of the year in center Zach Edey and their top seven scorers back from last year when they won the Big Ten regular season and tournament titles. And the Wildcats have a potential All-American in North Carolina transfer Caleb Love (17.7 points and 4.9 rebounds per game) and are the only team ranked in the top five of Pomery’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency metrics.

Still, Purdue and Arizona have not performed well in the NCAA tournament in recent years. The Boilermakers last year became only the second No. 1 seed to lose in the first round to a No. 16 seed. Since 2016, they have been a top 5 seed each year but have lost in the first round three times and only made one Regional final. They haven’t advanced to the Final Four since 1980.

Arizona also lost in the first round of last year’s NCAA tournament, falling as a No. 2 seed to No. 15 seed Princeton. Since 2016, the Wildcats have lost in the first round three times, missed two NCAA tournaments (not including the 2020 event that was cancelled) and never advanced past the Sweet 16. They last appeared in a Final Four in 2001 when they lost to Duke in the championship game.

Of course, all that history may mean nothing when it comes to this March. Purdue or Arizona could break their streaks and make the Final Four or even win a national title. Still, the way things look now with all of the recent upsets, the NCAA tournament could be wide open just like a year ago when Florida Atlantic, San Diego State and Miami joined UConn in an unlikely Final Four.