ATP Finals 2023 Day Four

After both opening the 2023 ATP Finals with an impressive win, Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev will meet tonight in Turin with an eye on this weekend’s semifinals.

In his Group B opener on Monday, Medvedev, the 2020 ATP Finals champion, made fairly light work of Andrey Rublev, dispatching his good friend 6-4, 6-2 in only 92 minutes. It was Medvedev’s third straight-sets win over Rublev in three matches this year, to go with wins in the final of the Dubai Tennis Championships and US Open quarters.

Zverev, who is seeking his third ATP Finals title to go with his wins in 2018 and 2021, opened his time in Turin with a 6-7 (3-7), 6-3, 6-4 win over Carlos Alcaraz.

After losing all five sets in losses to Alcaraz at the Madrid Masters and US Open this year, then losing the opening set on Monday, Zverev turned things around to take a big step towards reaching the ATP Finals semis once again.

Who will make it two wins in two matches in Turin? Medvedev has a significant upper hand in the head-to-head, and he is a firm favorite for the victory tonight.

Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Zverev Odds

Odds are courtesy of Bovada.

Moneyline

• Daniil Medvedev -210
• Alexander Zverev +170

Games Spread

• Daniil Medvedev -3 (-105)
• Alexander Zverev +3 (-125)

Total Match Games Over/Under

• Over 23 Games (-120)
• Under 23 Games (-110)

Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Zverev Prediction & Picks

These two have seen a lot of one another on the court this season, as this will be their sixth head-to-head encounter in 2023.

Zverev defeated Medvedev in the round of 16 at the Western & Southern Open in Cincinnati in August, but the other four matches have gone the way of the 2021 US Open champion.

Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Zverev Recent Head-to-Head Results

• 10/14/2023 (Beijing – SF): Medvedev won 6-4, 6-3
• 8/17/2023 (Cincinnati – R16): Zverev won 6-4, 5-7, 6-4
• 5/16/2023 (Rome – R16): Medvedev won 6-2, 7-6 (7-3)
• 4/13/2023 (Monte Carlo – R16): Medvedev won 3-6, 7-5, 7-6 (9-7)
• 3/14/2023 (Indian Wells – R16): Medvedev won 6-7 (5-7), 7-6 (7-5), 7-5

Zverev won the first four head-to-head encounters, but entering tonight’s match, Medvedev now owns an 11-7 advantage, including exhibitions.

Four of their previous meetings have taken place at the ATP Finals, with both players picking up two wins. In 2021, they met in the final of the tournament, with Zverev claiming a 6-4, 6-4 win to take the title.

There’s no value in backing the favorite to win outright here, so to find value with Medvedev, you have to look at other markets.

In the first six completed matches at the ATP Finals, the match winner has won at least three more games than their opposition five times. The lone exception thus far is Jannik Sinner’s 7-5, 6-7 (5-7), 7-6 (7-2) win over Novak Djokovic yesterday.

With the way things are trending there, as well as Medvedev’s current head-to-head dominance over Zverev, the games spread is the play I’m focusing on for this match.

Prediction: Daniil Medvedev to win

Pick: Daniil Medvedev -3 (-105 at Bovada)

Where to Bet on Tennis

The odds mentioned in this article came from Bovada, but they are far from the only place out there offering tennis odds. At the top sports betting sites, you can always find odds for the major tennis tournaments.

In addition to Bovada, here are some other online sportsbooks where you can find ATP Finals odds, Australian Open odds, French Open odds, Wimbledon odds, US Open odds, and odds for other notable tournaments:

There are a number of reputable online sportsbooks that are good for betting on tennis, but we have reviewed all of the above books and highly recommend them all.