USA vs Montenegro Predictions & Odds

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31 August 2023

Nikola Vucevic is Montenegro's only hope at keeping pace with the Americans on Friday, but as Rory Breasail outlines — don't expect a big night offensively from the Chicago Bulls center. Read more in our USA vs. Montenegro betting picks.

Team USA breezed through the first phase of the World Cup, with a 3-0 record and the second-highest point differential of any team in the tournament. And while their World Cup odds don’t get significantly harder when they face off against Montenegro on Friday, they’re still very much a work in progress.

Steve Kerr made the decision to shift Josh Hart into the starting lineup and Brandon Ingram to the second unit for their game against Jordan, and it immediately paid dividends. Will this new-look version of Team USA be the one where they become more than the sum of their parts?

Find out in our FIBA World Cup picks and predictions for USA vs. Montenegro on September 1.

USA vs Montenegro odds

USA vs Montenegro picks and predictions

While Team USA is always a fine-balancing act of role definition and sacrifice, the opposite is typically true of most national teams. They rarely have one All-Star from the NBA, let alone two, which makes it easy to establish a functional on-court hierarchy and build out the team philosophy from there.

And the straw that stirs the drink for Montenegro is none other than Chicago Bulls big man Nikola Vucevic.

Vucevic is a 6-foot-10 stretch-five known for his ability as a scorer/rebounder, and his ability to stretch the floor elevates everyone else on Montenegro. FIBA features a ton of traditional, back-to-paint bound centers and Vuc gives his national team a competitive advantage by making them work in space.

But that sort of thing is not going to be new to Team USA, and furthermore, Vucevic’s reputation as a shooter somewhat outstretches the reality. Vuc is a good shooter for a big man, but not a devastating one overall, with a below-league-average NBA career 3-point percentage of 34.8%.

The lion’s share of his points still come from within side the arc, and that is going to be difficult against the likes of Jaren Jackson Jr. and Walker Kessler. JJJ and Kessler have combined to help the USA lead the field in blocks per game at 6.7, nearly two more than second-placed Lithuania.

JJJ is the reigning Defensive Player of the Year and the precise kind of switch big that should prove troublesome for Vuc. Jackson Jr. is quicker and longer than Vucevic and will be totally comfortable banging down low or denying him up top.

Another factor working against Vucevic is the decision to bench Brandon Ingram. Ingram is not a terrible defender, but he’s not an enormous value add on that side of the ball.

By contrast, Josh Hart is an outstanding defender and rebounder who consistently makes winning plays. Even though Hart is not going to be guarding Vuc in a primary capacity, his mere presence makes the Team USA starters more difficult to score against.

That’s because the ball pressure that Team USA can apply will make every pass to Vuc on the roll more difficult, every post entry riskier, and should generally result in more difficult isolation basketball.

Hart is a master of applying that kind of pressure, as is Mikal Bridges. Vuc is a wonderful offensive player, but still a highly dependent one. If the guards on Montenegro can’t get him the ball, it’s going to be difficult for him to have much of an impact.

When you look at the plays that Vuc had success in the first phase of the tournament, he’s a play finisher, not a play creator. That’s true in the NBA as well, and it suggests he’s going to be in for a long night against Team USA.

My best bet: Nikola Vucevic Under 19.5 points (-114 at FanDuel)

USA vs Montenegro same-game parlay

Under 181.5 (-115)

Montenegro team total Under 80.5 (-195)

Anthony Edwards 12+ points (-280)

While my best bet of Vucevic Under 19.5 points isn’t available as a leg of a same-game parlay, I’ve put together a three-leg SGP that follows the same logic as that prop — featuring total points Under 181.5, Montenegro Under 80.5, and Anthony Edwards to record 12+ points.

Montenegro is averaging 83.7 points per game through phase one of group play, but that largely came from running up the score against Iran. They’re also one of the worst shooting teams to make the second round, hitting below 31% of their triples in the World Cup. The only consistent way to beat the USA requires limiting the impact of JJJ or making a bunch of threes, and Montenegro doesn’t have a clear path to doing either.

For his part, Edwards has been the most reliable offensive weapon for Team USA, but I kept his scoring prop on the low side because Steve Kerr clearly favors an equal-opportunity offense with this group.

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USA vs Montenegro spread and Over/Under analysis

The spread for Friday’s game opened with the Americans boasting a 24.5-point edge at most sportsbooks, which has risen as high as 26.5 at the time of writing. Team USA’s dominance in the opening phase was expected given the quality of their group, but it was nonetheless impressive to see how quickly they cohered into an effective unit.

While Steve Kerr wouldn’t confirm as much, it feels like Team USA’s new starting lineup is here to stay. Not only did moving Ingram to the bench see him get more involved and comfortable in the offense, but it also united Hart, Bridges, and Jalen Brunson on the starting unit.

Those three have unreal chemistry and complementary skills, and their desire to win and play the right way has an infectious quality. Team USA got off to their best start of the tournament and never looked back against Jordan as a result, and they look one step closer to being the team that walks out of Manila with the Gold.

Montenegro's first-phase performance was not nearly as impressive. While they trounced Egypt and Mexico in emphatic fashion, those are not countries with legitimately competitive FIBA squads. Against their lone opponent who fits that bill, Lithuania, they got thoroughly beaten 91-71.

The total for USA vs. Montenegro has not seen as much movement as the spread, coming in at between 180.5 and 181.5 depending on the sportsbook. I’m expecting the USA defense to be the focal point of this one and am banking on Montenegro to score in the low 70s like they did against Spain.

If you're thinking about taking the Over, you’re looking at needing 110+ points from Team USA. That’s no mean feat, even against Montenegro. They scored 110 exactly against Jordan and fell just short of 109 vs. Greece, so I’d ultimately favor the Under in this one.