Utah State vs. Air Force Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 3

Utah State travels to Colorado Springs to face Air Force in each team's Mountain West opener.

Utah State will look to get its first win against FBS competition in a road effort against an undefeated Air Force team. The Falcons have allowed 10 points through two games against Robert Morris and Sam Houston State and will look to shut down an Aggies team that covered in two vastly different games. Utah State covered as a big underdog at Iowa, then bludgeoned Idaho State, 78-28.

How can we use history to create a savvy bet? Let's break it all down.

Utah State

Cooper Legas: Legas had a great outing against Air Force last season, completing 18-of-23 passes for 215 yards with two touchdowns, adding 76 yards and a rushing TD in the win. Can the Utah State quarterback put up another big effort on the road against a stout Air Force defense?

Air Force

Zac Larrier: Air Force hasn't been challenged by a strong offense just yet, but the team's offense has fared alright with Larirer taking over as starting quarterback. He is the team's leading rusher of the triple option scheme, taking 33 carries for 164 yards. He has only attempted six passes through two games. Will the Falcons shut down Utah State's offense to keep Larrier's ability to craft efficient O in a higher scoring affair, or will we see what the new signal caller can do?

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Referring to the trends section of this preview, service academies are hitting at about a 44% rate as a double digit favorite. It makes sense, the triple option minded offenses play at the slowest rates in college football and with limited possessions it becomes hard to win by the necessary points.

Utah State is off of an outright win against Air Force as a double digit underdog, so we have some precedent, but I left the Aggies loss against Iowa impressed. The team shutdown the Hawkeyes ground-based approach outside of the first drive, limiting Iowa to about four yards per play.

While Air Force may be a better offense than Iowa, Utah State found answers against this Falcons defense last season, posting a success rate of 52% (91st percentile of all 2022 games) and posting a 13% explosive play rate (91t percentile). Now, AFA hasn't been challenged by an offensive that has talent like Utah State, possibly putting pressure on a team that hasn't needed to unleash a revamped offense just yet.

I'm not sure we are certain that Air Force's offense will be that good again in 2023 without its veteran quarterback (Haaziq Daniels) or its 1,700 yard rusher (Brad Roberts) that was top 20 in EPA/Play and success rate.

I'll make Air Force prove its worthy of laying double digits before blindly doing it.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.