College Football Week 5 Picks Against the Spread for Every Top 25 Game
College football Week 5 is a statement week of sorts.
Several contenders, including two time defending champion Georgia, and Michigan play its first true road games of the season. While these are the two National Championship favorites, neither have been covering at a high rate. Michigan hasn't covered a point spread to date, but will the Wolverines cover the three possession spread against Nebraska?
Here's how I'm betting every college football Top 25 matchup in Week 5:
YTD: 29-39-3
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PICK: Georgia -14.5
PICK: Michigan -17
PICK: Texas -16.5
PICK: Northwestern +27
We have floated out of range for the Nittany Lions on the road to face the Wildcats. Northwestern entered the season in turmoil, and while the team has been prone to getting blown out by better opponents, the Wildcats have showcased some offensive firepower, scoring 21 unanswered to force overtime in the fourth quarter and beating Minnesota, 37-34.
Penn State's defense is a different animal than the Gophers, but Northwestern grades out top 50 in the country in success rate. As long as the chains are moving, the team can keep this scoreline respectable with the Nittany Lions.
PICK: Washington -18
PICK: USC -21.5
We saw the drop-off for the Buffaloes when they played a worthy opponent in the 42-6 trouncing in Eugene last weekend. While the team returns home, injuries are starting to mount, not only to Travis Hunter, but also to fellow defensive back, Shilo Sanders.
The Trojans haven't played a murderer's row of competition just yet, but the team grades out as a top five pass rush by Pro Football Focus, meaning the team will overwhelm Colorado's patchwork offensive line.
I expect USC, like Oregon, to be interested in putting a big number on the scoreboard like Oregon was and cover this three touchdown spread as the Buffaloes see a worthy adjustment down in its power rating.
PCK: Oregon -27
PICK: Oregon State -3
The Beavers couldn't slow down the Washington State passing game on the road against the Cougars as the team couldn't overcome a 14-0 first quarter deficit.
However, I don't believe the Utah passing game can challenge the Oregon State secondary that gave me some pause heading into the season as a PAC-12 title contender after losing two NFL-caliber cornerbacks.
The Utes are hoping that Cam Rising will make his long awaited return from his torn ACL suffered in January and give a jolt to its quarterback play. Rising is a decorated passer, passing for over 5,500 yards over the last two seasons, but backup Nate Johnson hasn't been a threat at all in the passing game as the Utes have leaned on its stifling defense to get to 4-0 on the year.
Utah is 108th in EPA/Play on offense thus far while running the ball at a top 10 rate given the team's inability to move the ball downfield with the rush first Johnson.
If Johnson gets the nod, I don't believe the Utes will challenge the weak point of the Oregon State defense while I also question Rising effectiveness if he suits it up in his potential first start on the road against the Beavers.
I give full credit to Utah for shutting down a vaunted UCLA offense and freshman quarterback Dante Moore, limiting the Bruins to -0.50 EPA/Play (1st percentile amongst games in 2022). However, the team will face a better Beavers offensive line in Oregon State, who are top 15 in offensive line yards.
I'm banking on Utah not being able to hit a 75-yard touchdown pass on the opening play (like against Florida), or a pick-six (like against UCLA) and struggle to play from behind, setting up a Beavers cover.
PICK: Duke +5.5
PICK: Alabama -14.5
This is a brutal spot for Mississippi State, who has seen its defense fallen off of a cliff. The team is outside the top 100 in success rate and is 97th in EPA/Play. The team will be the perfect landing spot for a still developing Alabama offensive line.
The Crimson Tide have struggled against some of the better pass rushes in the nation, like Texas or even Ole Miss, but Mississippi State is far more pedestrian and is struggling to slow down anybody in the passing game, allowing more than eight yards per pass (111th in the country) and over a 74% completion percentage (129th).
Sure, a lot of that comes against dangerous passing units like LSU, South Carolina and Arizona, but it's very possible the Crimson Tide are able to scheme up a few deep passes early, get ahead and overpower the Bulldogs defense.
Alabama's defense has looked the part this season, top 10 in success rate this season, and Mississippi State's porous offensive line that is outside the top 100 in sacks allowed and 93rd in success rate will struggle to stay on schedule.
It's been tough to trust this Alabama team, but the betting market is still trying to find the bottom with Mississippi State, and this isn't it. Lay it with the Crimson Tide.
PICK: Ole Miss +2.5
PICK: Iowa State +20
Oklahoma has covered every closing number this season, but it hasn't looked like a College Football Playoff contender like some have been saying after four weeks. The team was outgained by SMU in a 17-point win and needed some red zone stops to keep Cincinnati at bay, winning 20-6 in its first true road game.
The team returns home to Norman ahead of the Red River matchup with Texas next week, laying a big number against an Iowa State offense that finally broke out against Oklahoma State, scoring a season high 34 points.
Iowa State's defense remains one of the best in the Big 12, top 20 in key metrics such as EPA/Play and success rate while running a 3-3-5 zone scheme that does a good job of keeping the opposition in front of the defender.
That'll be key against OU, who has the capability to take the top off a defense, but this is the preferred spot for head coach Matt Campbell in his tenure in Ames.
Since taking over as head coach in 2016, Campbell's Iowa State teams are 11-4-1 against the spread (ATS) as an underdog of a touchdown or more. That number improves to 9-2 when the Cyclones are underdogs of 10 or more.
PICK: Tennessee -12.5
PICK: Florida +1
PICK: Missouri -13.5
PICK: Fresno State -24.5
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
