College football bowl game best bets: How to bet the Armed Forces Bowl

Bowl season rolls on this week with 11 games leading up to Christmas. Here’s how I think a few of them will play out.

All times Eastern. All point spreads and totals were taken Dec. 15 from DraftKings Sportsbook.

This series will examine the impact of legalized gambling on sports, through news coverage, accountability journalism and advice for navigating this new landscape.

Gasparilla Bowl

Georgia Tech vs. Central Florida

Both of these teams have strong rushing attacks, with Central Florida averaging 233.2 yards on the ground (No. 4 in the nation) and Georgia Tech averaging 197.1 (16th nationally). Likewise, neither team is all that great at stopping the run: The Golden Knights allow 186.8 rushing yards per game (121st in the country), and the Yellow Jackets allow 225.7 (better than only Louisiana Tech and North Texas in the Football Bowl Subdivision).

While UCF hasn’t been stung all that much by player departures, Georgia Tech will be without edge rusher Kyle Kennard (team-high six sacks) and cornerback Kenan Johnson (the team’s highest-rated defensive player, per Pro Football Focus). That could leave an already shaky defense even more vulnerable, and I think points will be the order of the day.

The pick: over 64.5

Armed Forces Bowl

Air Force vs. James Madison

Not only did James Madison lose coach Curt Cignetti to Indiana (along with both coordinators and its quarterbacks coach), but 10 starters are in the transfer portal, the second most in the nation behind Texas A&M and Oregon State. But all of them except for defensive lineman Mikail Kamara (6.5 sacks in 2023) and offensive lineman Carter Miller (nine starts this season) are expected to play in the bowl game. Air Force has not had any departures of note, and quarterback Zac Larrier is scheduled to return from the knee injury he battled over the final third of the season. The Falcons were not the same without Larrier: After starting the season 8-0 and rising to No. 17 in the country, Air Force lost its last four games.

This game pits Air Force’s rushing offense (No. 2 nationally at 275.8 yards per game) against James Madison’s rushing defense (No. 1 at 61.5 yards allowed per game and also No. 1 in rushing success rate allowed). But in general, I tend to side with good rushing offenses in bowl games: Over the past 12 years, teams that rank in the top 10 in rushing yards per game at the end of the season are 57-36 against the spread in bowl games, and under Coach Troy Calhoun, Air Force is 8-2 against the spread in its past 10 bowl games. With Larrier back, the Falcons will look more like the team that started the season hot and can keep this close.

The pick: Air Force +2.5

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Georgia State vs. Utah State

Three of Georgia State’s top six offensive players in terms of Pro Football Focus grade headed to the transfer portal: running back Marcus Carroll (112.5 rushing yards per game, which ranks eighth nationally, and 274 carries, which ranks second), wide receiver Robert Lewis (team-high 70 catches, seven for touchdowns) and starting right tackle Montavious Cunningham. The ball ended up in Carroll’s or Lewis’s hands on 42.5 percent of the Panthers’ offensive snaps, and now both are gone.

Utah State has seen few defections of note. The Aggies had quarterback issues all season, with Cooper Legas and backup McCae Hillstead battling injuries, but they might be in good shape with third-stringer Levi Williams, who threw for two touchdowns and ran for three more in the regular season finale against New Mexico (a win that got Utah State to a bowl game). Williams previously played at Wyoming and — in this very same game in 2021 — became the first quarterback to rush for 200 yards, score four rushing touchdowns and throw for a score in a bowl. He also has bowl experience against Georgia State, throwing a career-high three touchdown passes against the Panthers for Wyoming in the 2019 Arizona Bowl.

Williams has said he will not return next season — he intends to apply for Navy SEAL training — so this could be a grand farewell against a team that’s pretty depleted. Take the Aggies.