Vincenzi’s ZOZO Championship betting preview: Former Masters champ set for big week in Tokyo
The PGA TOUR will head to Japan this week for just the fourth time in history to play the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP at Narashino Country Club. The event was played at the course in 2019 but had to move to Las Vegas in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic before returning to Narashino in 2021 and 2022.
Narashino Country Club is a par 70 measuring 7,079 yards and features Bentgrass greens. The course has a unique design with five par 3s and three par 5s.
The ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP is a no-cut event that features 78 golfers that includes 60 available PGA TOUR players from the 2022-2023 FedEx Cup Points list, nine special exemptions and nine Japan Golf Tour players. 16 of the top 50 players in the Official World Golf Ranking will be in attendance including Xander Schauffele, Cameron Young, Min Woo Lee, Keegan Bradley, Collin Morikawa, Sungjae Im, Hideki Matsuyama and Rickie Fowler.
Past Winners at Narashino Country Club
- 2022: Keegan Bradley (-15)
- 2021: Hideki Matsuyama (-15)
- 2019: Tiger Woods (-19)
Let’s take a look at several key metrics for Narashino Country Club to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club isn’t a very long course. It is a positional track and finding the right spots to land the golf ball will create birdie opportunities. With the three winners at the course being Tiger Woods, Hideki Matsuyama and Keegan Bradley, it’s quite clear that accuracy with the irons will be crucial this week.
Total Strokes Gained: Approach in past 24 rounds:
- Sam Ryder (+24.8)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+23.2)
- Xander Schauffele (+21.4)
- Collin Morikawa (+19.9)
- Eric Cole (+18.3)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club is a tree-lined golf course that is pretty tight off the tee. In 2019, we saw Tiger Woods win the event by keeping the ball in the fairway and intelligently plotting along the golf course.
In 2021 and 2022, hitting fairways was extremely difficult over the weekend. The course can’t be overpowered, and good drivers of the golf ball should have the advantage.
However, long hitters have also fared well at the course. I believe a well rounded off the tee game is required this week.
Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee in past 24 rounds:
- M.J. Daffue (+22.1)
- Garrick Higgo (+18.0)
- Kevin Yu (+17.9)
- Tyler Duncan (+17.8)
- Min Woo Lee (+17.1)
SG: Putting (Bentgrass)
An interesting aspect of the course is its double greens. The course has two greens on each hole to enable golfers to use the course year-round as different seasons require different grass types.
The green complexes themselves are quite tricky, and good Bentgrass putters should have an advantage.
SG: Putting (Bentgrass) past 24 rounds:
- Maverick McNealy (+21.4)
- Eric Cole (+18.9)
- Dylan Wu (+18.1)
- Justin Lower (+17.7)
- Keegan Bradley (+16.7)
Strokes Gained: Par 3
With five par 3s on the course, it is even more important than usual for golfers to play them efficiently.
Total SG: Par 3 in past 24 rounds:
- Eric Cole (+22.0)
- Mark Hubbard (+14.5)
- Andrew Putnam (+11.2)
- Keegan Bradley (+11.2)
- Carson Young (+9.7)
Greens in Regulation: Gained
Narashino Country Club can play very difficult. Hitting greens in regulation will be incredibly beneficial, and in 2021 Matsuyama did so consistently. He gained 15 strokes on the field in the category, which was six strokes better than the next best. Last year, Bradley gained 6.3 strokes.
Greens In Regulation: Gained in past 24 rounds:
- Collin Morikawa (+30.9)
- Andrew Putnam (+26.0)
- Sam Ryder (+24.3)
- Martin Laird (+23.8)
- Luke List (+23.7)
Statistical Model
Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.
These rankings are comprised of SG:APP (28%) Good Drives Gained: (23%), Greens in Regulation: Gained (20%), SG: Par 3 (14.5%), SG: Putting (Bentgrass) (14.5%).
- Collin Morikawa (+1100)
- Xander Schauffele (+700)
- Callum Tarren (+7500)
- Adam Schenk (+4500)
- Adam Svensson (+4500)
- J.J. Spaun (+5000)
- Keegan Bradley (+2500)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+1800)
- Vincent Norrman (+4500)
- Eric Cole (+3000)
ZOZO Championship Best Bets
Sungjae Im +2000 (FanDuel)
Sungjae Im has been in Asia over the past few weeks sharpening his game. The 25-year-old avoided military service by winning a silver medal at the Asian Games a few weeks ago and followed it up with a tie for 2nd place finish at the Genesis Championship in South Korea last week. The fact that Im is acclimated to Asia over the past few weeks should give him a leg up on the players who will be coming over from America.
Sungjae has played some great golf on Zoysia fairways throughout his career. He has a runner-up finish at East Lake Golf Club which features the surface as well as 12th and 6th place finishes at TPC Southwind (St. Jude). The South Korean has also showed a fondess of Narashino CC and boasts a 3rd place finish here in 2019 to go along with a 29th last year.
He doesn’t quite have the pedigree of Schauffele and Morikawa who sit atop the odds board this week, but I believe his chances to win the event are comparable at double the price. He’s clearly in good form at the moment and this will be a good chance for Im to nab his first PGA Tour victory since 2021.
Adam Scott +2500 (BetRivers)
Adam Scott also fits the mold of a player who’s been playing in Asia recently and is acclimated to the conditions. Scott played in last week’s Japan Open, shooting 73-73 and missing the cut on the number on an incredibly difficult golf course. He took the bullet train to Tokyo last night and should be ready to go for the ZOZO Championship.
Throughout his career, the Australian has been a global golfer, winning all over the world. He’s won in Qatar, Beijing, China and in Singapore (by seven strokes) so he should have no problem playing well in Tokyo this week. Scott is an experienced golfer who knows how to manage a fairly difficult golf course similar to the three previous winners at the course.
Scott didn’t have his best season in 2023, missing the FedEx Cup playoffs, but finished the season strong with a 7th place result at the Wyndham Championship. He’ll have a chance to start his new season with a bang at Narashino CC.
Cameron Champ +8000 (FanDuel)
Cameron Champ is the type of player that shows form before winning. Before his most recent victory at the 2021 3M Open, he finished 11th the week prior at the John Deere Classic. Before his win at the Fortinet Championship in 2019, he finished 28th the week prior at the Sanderson Farms Championship, gaining 6.8 strokes off the tee. Similarly, he gained 6.4 strokes off the tee at the Fortinet in 2018 before winning the Sanderson Farms Championship the following week.
In his last two starts, Champ has finished 9th and 18th, which I believe is foreshadowing another victory in the near future.
TPC Summerlin is a course that typically favors accuracy over distance, but the 28-year-old managed to hang around anyway after a torrid start. Although Narashino CC is tight off the tee, bombers have fared very well at the course and driving distance has proven to be important statistically.
Champ had some success at the course last year when he finished 8th, only four shots behind the winner Keegan Bradley. He got into contention by shooting four rounds in the 60’s (including a Saturday 64) despite being in horrific form at the time. Cam missed the cut in three starts before the ZOZO as well as the three starts after.
There are some elite players at the top of the betting board this week, but at long odds, Champ has proven to be a prolific winner and someone I trust to finish strong if he finds himself in the mix on Sunday.
Keita Nakajima +12o00 (FanDuel)
Keita Nakajima turned professional last October, but prior to that, his 87 total weeks as the No. 1-ranked men’s amateur golfer in the world set a record, topping Jon Rahm’s former 60-week cumulative reign. After Nakajima turned pro, he was replaced by Ludvig Aberg atop the WAGR, and we’ve seen how quickly he’s developed into one of the world’s best young players.
Nakajima has a fantastic golf pedigree, but he’s also been playing great golf in Asia over the past few months. He has three top-8 finishes in his last four starts, as well as a win at the Yokohama Minato Championship back in August.
The 23-year-old from Japan has also had success at Narashino CC. He finished in a tie for 12th last year thanks to a ridiculous second round 63 and finished in a tie for 28th in 2021 when he teed it up as an amateur in a very strong field.
At long odds, it’s worth taking a shot on a player who could turn out to be the best Japanese golfer since Hideki Matsuyama on a course he will be comfortable on.
