Virginia Tech vs. Tulane Prediction, Preview, and Odds
The Military Bowl is set for Wednesday, and we have an exciting matchup on the horizon as the Virginia Tech Hokies square off against the Tulane Green Wave. Virginia Tech comes into this one at 6-6 while Tulane is currently 11-2. Kickoff is scheduled for 2:00 ET from the Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis, MD.
Hokies Dominate Cavaliers in Finale
Brent Pry will be coaching in his first bowl game as the Virginia Tech head coach. This will be the Hokies’ first postseason competition since 2021, after going just 3-8 in Pry’s inaugural season. Virginia Tech had its back against the wall over the final few weeks but they managed to win two of their final three games to qualify for the postseason. The Hokies beat Boston College (48-22) and Virginia (55-17) and had a loss to NC State (35-28) sandwiched in between. From a sports betting perspective, VT comes into this game at 7-5 ATS and they’ve seen eight of their 12 games go over the total.
Kyron Drones has been the man under center in Blacksburg this season, and he put together a respectable season. The signal caller racked up 1,993 passing yards on a 58.0% completion rate while adding 15 touchdowns and three interceptions. Bhayshul Tuten has spearheaded the rushing attack, picking up 727 yards on 155 carries (4.7 YPC).
The Hokies’ defense has been a serviceable unit this season under second-year coordinator Chris Marve. His unit is allowing just 24.3 points per game (against FBS schools), which is 50th overall. In terms of yardage, that translates to conceding 324.2 yards per contest, which is 22nd overall.
Green Wave Drop Finale to Mustangs
It was a successful season in New Orleans for the Green Wave, so much so that Houston poached their head coach, meaning Willie Fritz will not be leading the charge in this game. Offensive coordinator Slade Nagle will be the interim coach for the Military Bowl while Jon Sumrall (formerly with Troy) will take the reins of the program in the future. Tulane made it to the AAC Championship game, but they were on the losing end of that contest to SMU (26-14). The only other defeat came at the hands of Ole Miss (37-20) in week two, so it was definitely a great year in Louisiana overall. As for the sports betting numbers, the Green Wave went 5-8 ATS and 11 of their 13 games went under the total.
Five offensive players who played at least 314 snaps have entered the transfer portal. Check out this list from Action Network for the full run down. Most notably is quarterback Michael Pratt, who amassed 2,406 passing yards. The absence means Kai Horton will likely get the nod for the game. He threw for 485 yards on a 50% completion rate (31-62) while adding three touchdowns and two picks. Makhi Hughes will be the lead running back, and he added 1,290 rushing yards on 243 totes (5.3 YPC).
Tulane’s defense was one of the stingiest units in the league this season, allowing just 19.9 points per game (19th). In terms of yardage, they gave up only 333.3 yards, which is 22nd in the country. Again, the Green Wave will miss several defensive players in this game, five of whom played at least 401 snaps.
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Best Bets
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Virginia Tech opened this game as a 6.0-point favorite, and they’ve since been bet out to more than a double-digit bowl favorite. Well, considering all of the Tulane players (and their head coach) who won’t participate in this game, that makes sense. However, at some point you have to ask, “how much line movement is too much?” I’m drawing the line here, and I’ll ride with the Green Wave plus the points.
Head coach Willie Fritz won’t coach this game, but his whole staff will be available before moving to Houston with him. I think these guys want to go out on a high note, and they know the players well that are in the locker room. I mean, this is a team that went 11-2 and made it to a conference championship, not your run-of-the-mill average football program. Finally, Kai Horton was able to get some reps this season at quarterback for Tulane, so it’s not like he’s never played college ball before. He racked up 485 yards on 62 attempts this season. I think we’re in for a higher-scoring game where the Green Wave do enough to at least cover the spread.
Prediction: Tulane Green Wave +10.5 (-110)
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On that note, I’ll also be playing the over. Tulane will be without two of its top receivers in this game as well. However, with Horton stepping in at quarterback, he’ll now be distributing the ball to back-up receivers, who he is comfortable with. Maybe I’m crazy for trying to “spin zone” this narrative about all of the back-ups playing, but I think there’s a part of this angle that makes sense.
On the flip side, we’re getting Virginia Tech’s offense, who just dropped 55 points on Virginia in its last game. They’re basically at full strength, so I don’t think they lose much offensively in this game. The Hokies put up 28.6 points per game this season, so if they come anywhere near that mark, this game should fly over the total. Ultimately, this number is a bit short for me, so I’m locking in the over!
