Virginia vs. Tennessee Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 1: Vols Will Feel at Home in Nashville

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31 August 2023

Virginia vs. Tennessee Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 1: Vols Will Feel at Home in Nashville

Our Virginia vs. Tennessee prediction for Week 1 breaks down the best college football odds and looks at whether the Tennessee Volunteers can maintain Josh Heupel’s potent offense with a new quarterback under center in 2023.

The good news is, technically, Week 1 against Tennessee is a neutral site game, which is good news for those who are betting on Virginia to win college football on Saturday. The bad news is, it's a neutral site in Nashville.

After a challenging 3-7 campaign, Virginia faces the daunting task of contending in the season opener at Nissan Stadium, especially if Joe Milton lives up to the expectations set for him with Tennessee. The raucous atmosphere at the stadium promises to be a formidable challenge for the Cavaliers.

Here is our best Virginia vs. Tennessee prediction for Week 1 (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Virginia vs. Tennessee prediction: Week 1

Tennessee -27.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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After an 11-2 season largely led by Hendon Hooker at quarterback, Tennessee will rally behind another veteran of the position in Milton this season. Milton, who was initially named the Vols’ starter over Hooker in 2021 and arguably has a bigger arm than the Detroit Lions draftee, is a perfect fit for Josh Heupel’s offense.

Tennessee finished with one of the best ATS records in college football last year, covering 10 times in 13 games. Virginia’s lackluster offense led the Cavaliers to a 4-6 mark against the spread.

Averaging just 15.1 points per game last season, Virginia wouldn’t have had the offense to hang within shouting distance of Tennessee. The Cavaliers scored more than 17 points just twice all season, while the Vols were held below 38 points only twice.

The Vols scored 44.5 points per contest in 2022 to lead FBS. Though the wide receiver room must prove itself after seeing Jaylin Hyatt head to the NFL, running backs Jabari Small and Jaylen Wright return to lead the backfield. Both are lethal in space and are expected to factor into our college football Week 1 predictions.

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As if things weren’t bleak enough for Virginia, the Vols have athleticism across the defensive front and should live in the UVA backfield if the Cavaliers’ offensive line is anywhere near as woeful as it was in 2022.

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Virginia vs. Tennessee best odds

As of Friday morning, the odds advantage when playing the Volunteers on the spread is pretty straightforward. If you’re playing at FanDuel, you have one. FanDuel is the only book to list Tennessee as less than a full four scores.

If you don’t have FanDuel access, our other four best sports betting apps are identical at -28 with standard -110 odds across the board. Without the hook to -27.5, this recommendation would drop down to three stars. We like this pick as a three-star play up to -30.5.

Virginia vs. Tennessee odds

Tennessee opened as a 28-point favorite and has remained at that mark at all our best sportsbooks aside from FanDuel. Around 53% of point spread wagers have come in on the Vols.

The total opened at 57.5 but has dropped across the board despite 66% of wagers coming in on the Over. FanDuel and BetMGM have moved the line to 56.5, while DraftKings, Caesars, and bet365 have dropped it down to 56.