Tennessee vs. Virginia odds, spread, time: 2023 college football picks, Week 1 predictions by proven model
A SEC vs. ACC matchup helps get the Saturday college football schedule underway when the Tennessee Volunteers meet the Virginia Cavaliers in Nashville. Tennessee went 11-2 and beat Clemson in the Orange Bowl to finish last season ranked sixth by The Associated Press. Virginia went 3-7 in its first season under coach Tony Elliott. Both teams will be breaking in new quarterbacks and looking to replace some other key pieces. The Vols are 3-1 all-time against the Cavs, but the last meeting was in 1990.
Kickoff at Nissan Stadium is set for noon ET on Saturday. The Vols are 28-point favorites in the latest Virginia vs. Tennessee odds via the SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points is set at 56. Before making any Tennessee vs. Virginia picks, be sure to check out the college football predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $2,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Virginia vs. Tennessee and just revealed its picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's CFB picks. Here are several college football odds and trends for Tennessee vs. UVA:
- Virginia vs. Tennessee spread: Tennessee -28
- Virginia vs. Tennessee over/under: 56 points
- Virginia vs. Tennessee money line: Cavaliers +1600, Volunteers -5303
- Virginia: The Cavs are 11-7 ATS against ranked opponents since 2016.
- Tennessee: The Vols were 5-0 ATS in non-conference games in 2022.
- Virginia vs. Tennessee picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why Tennessee can cover
UT went 10-3 against the spread in 2022 and 8-2 ATS as a favorite. Star quarterback Hendon Hooker and receiver Jalin Hyatt are in the NFL now, but coach Josh Heupel still has plenty of talent to work with. The coach has produced top-10 FBS offenses each of the past five years, including his time at UCF. The Vols led FBS in total yards (525.5 per game) and scoring (46.1 points) in 2022. Veteran Joe Milton will take over for Hooker, the 2022 SEC Player of the Year. The strong-armed QB threw 12 touchdown passes and no interceptions in limited duty last season.
The Vols rushed for 199 yards per game behind Jaylen Wright (875 yards, 10 TDs) and Jabari Small (734, 13). Receivers Bru McCoy (667 yards) and sophomore Squirrel White (481) should be Milton's go-to guys. The Vols struggled against the pass but allowed 23 points per game in 2022, two fewer than Virginia. Linebacker Aaron Beasley (76 tackles, three sacks in 2022) was a star in a shutout of Vanderbilt and the strong bowl victory against Clemson to close the season. The Cavs scored 15 points and averaged 329 yards per contest, among the worst in FBS. See which team to pick here.
Why Virginia can cover
Elliott has been part of a lot of big games as the former offensive coordinator at Clemson, and he also has had a ton of time to get ready. He has been working with a new quarterback, and Tony Muskett put up strong numbers in his past three seasons at FCS Monmouth. The Virginia native threw for 5,687 yards, with 51 TD passes and 16 interceptions, for the Hawks and earned All-Big South first-team honors in 2020 and '21.
Muskett doesn't have many proven targets, but the Vols ranked 127th in passing defense in 2022, allowing 287 yards per game. Virginia could have a strong run game behind Perris Jones (365 yards) and Clemson transfer Kobe Pace (641 in 2021). The Cavs are 4-0 in their past four as a double-digit underdog, and they covered three of their final four games. That includes losses by two points to Miami and three to North Carolina. The UVA defense yielded 4.8 yards per play in 2002, 23rd in FBS, and gave up 361 yards per game (41st). Top rusher Chico Bennett (knee) is injured, so Kam Butler (three sacks in 2022) should lead a veteran front seven. See which team to pick here.
How to make Virginia vs. Tennessee picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the point total, with simulations showing both quarterbacks putting up strong numbers. The model also says one side of the spread is hitting in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.
